{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58c5a0ce-0f2f-4fd5-9b71-4881117d97f5", "symbol": "EMOVE", "name": "Fineco AM MarketVector Global Clean Energy Transition Sustainable UCITS ETF A Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.676, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.264, "architecture_energy": 48.699, "architecture_maturity": 7.519, "architecture_confidence": 69.138, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.15, "rotation_up": 17.56, "upward_expansion": 16.53, "deceleration": 47.73, "rotation_down": 67.95, "downward_expansion": 58.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 131.035998, 134.081636, 140.410714, 140.511764 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 137.009995, "trend_reference": 139.661667, "distance_from_trend": -0.018986, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 103.58785, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.601466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030615, "excess_performance": -0.140276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322645, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244447, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076015, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298757, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030615, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.127747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2233, "relative_activity": 1.737473, "balance": 1.127747, "dry_up": 1.438687, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067867, "annualized_volatility": 0.313369, "from_high_reference": -0.161352, "from_low_reference": 0.555518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 139.661667, "fair_value_reference": 103.58785, "structural_low": 121.580002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089442, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083663, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.129665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058401, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-06-14", "close": 104.290001, "volume": 300, 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"relative_strength": -11.917108, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.327602, "energy": 65.317519, "activity_lines": [ 129.013333, 134.624, 140.905001, 140.662151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.009995, "volume": 2233, "typical_volume": 1285.2, "trend": 139.661667, "fair_value": 103.58785, "relative_strength": -7.601466, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.264306, "energy": 48.698877, "activity_lines": [ 131.035998, 134.081636, 140.410714, 140.511764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }