{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58c6ac11-3ab9-42d5-9c76-1dfddf75a862", "symbol": "PADEL", "name": "Acenta Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.074, "architecture_energy": 67.969, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.831, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.67, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 56.69, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.931333, 2.094364, 2.60819, 3.385591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.05, "trend_reference": 4.742, "distance_from_trend": -0.567693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.193846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.921737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -79.213238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.762731, "excess_performance": -0.824226, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.567693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.42119, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.921737, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.792132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.762731, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256817, "relative_activity": 3.881495, "balance": 1.0149, "dry_up": 2.316221, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171295, "annualized_volatility": 0.901537, "from_high_reference": -0.91087, "from_low_reference": 0.318328 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.742, "fair_value_reference": 26.193846, "structural_low": 1.555, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 51, "median_return": -0.076389, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.091009, "regime_survival": 0.901961, "best_return": 0.729323, "worst_return": -0.582609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.223194, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.223463, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.1875, "worst_return": -0.745015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.493868, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.460764, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.388889, "worst_return": -0.859257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.473214, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.520325, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.29, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.361311, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178344, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 2.1, "volume": 38591, "typical_volume": 45782.05, "trend": 6.034, "fair_value": 29.722917, "relative_strength": -79.179737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.056616, "energy": 94.24961, "activity_lines": [ 2.332, 2.651091, 3.285619, 4.324538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.92, "volume": 51910, "typical_volume": 46799.05, "trend": 5.708, "fair_value": 28.789712, "relative_strength": -80.512297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.970026, "energy": 74.656725, "activity_lines": [ 2.154, 2.466182, 3.076429, 4.059118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.7, "volume": 88533, "typical_volume": 50874.65, "trend": 5.374667, "fair_value": 27.919199, "relative_strength": -82.781194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.979165, "energy": 88.944253, "activity_lines": [ 1.968, 2.275273, 2.87419, 3.800538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.92, "volume": 215746, "typical_volume": 60878.25, "trend": 5.027, "fair_value": 27.062115, "relative_strength": -80.509103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.579554, "energy": 68.830849, "activity_lines": [ 1.908667, 2.16, 2.720524, 3.577656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.05, "volume": 256817, "typical_volume": 66164.45, "trend": 4.742, "fair_value": 26.193846, "relative_strength": -79.213238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.074031, "energy": 67.968829, "activity_lines": [ 1.931333, 2.094364, 2.60819, 3.385591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }