{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58cf6d48-834e-4473-b2be-16a0a467c73e", "symbol": "MODEL", "name": "Modelon AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.928, "architecture_energy": 58.305, "architecture_maturity": 25.399, "architecture_confidence": 58.647, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.56, "rotation_up": 71.79, "upward_expansion": 63.71, "deceleration": 19.62, "rotation_down": 18.61, "downward_expansion": 19.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.366667, 9.909091, 9.242619, 9.000108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 11.0, "trend_reference": 9.035, "distance_from_trend": 0.217488, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.073718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006657, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.274438, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.061494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.217488, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045767, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006657, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252711, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.266431, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.927222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1693, "relative_activity": 0.25742, "balance": 4.927222, "dry_up": 1.464504, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112937, "annualized_volatility": 0.966812, "from_high_reference": -0.236111, "from_low_reference": 0.692308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.035, "fair_value_reference": 11.073718, "structural_low": 6.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.111594, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.122161, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.008, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.18, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.24383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095652, "worst_return": -0.192308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.186667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.35252, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.004348, "worst_return": -0.207692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.250641, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.466022, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.134615, "worst_return": -0.366667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087591, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062992, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065421, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049505, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.268868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164021, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.4, "volume": 17806, "typical_volume": 45984.8, "trend": 14.908333, "fair_value": 26.660744, "relative_strength": -40.018689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.105816, "energy": 63.317348, 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"gate": "down", "direction": 1.894228, "energy": 18.427433, "activity_lines": [ 9.116667, 8.679091, 8.454286, 8.691183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.5, "volume": 125, "typical_volume": 40164.9, "trend": 9.18, "fair_value": 11.086218, "relative_strength": -19.061607, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.299685, "energy": 33.236272, "activity_lines": [ 9.306667, 8.885455, 8.570476, 8.710108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.45, "volume": 1260, "typical_volume": 39355.75, "trend": 9.161667, "fair_value": 11.073718, "relative_strength": -17.474958, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.117248, "energy": 40.698821, "activity_lines": [ 9.366667, 9.043636, 8.678333, 8.727527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.3, "volume": 26220, "typical_volume": 39955.7, "trend": 9.138333, "fair_value": 11.06859, "relative_strength": -10.441615, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.208668, "energy": 54.641996, "activity_lines": [ 9.753333, 9.337273, 8.855476, 8.800968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.3, "volume": 9354, "typical_volume": 40364.95, "trend": 9.075, "fair_value": 11.069872, "relative_strength": -10.52516, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.329811, "energy": 54.363782, "activity_lines": [ 9.97, 9.585455, 9.02119, 8.875914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.0, "volume": 1693, "typical_volume": 6576.8, "trend": 9.035, "fair_value": 11.073718, "relative_strength": -5.274438, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.927589, "energy": 58.304791, "activity_lines": [ 10.366667, 9.909091, 9.242619, 9.000108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }