{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58d018d1-bd49-4470-9f91-177826c4ca60", "symbol": "PJT", "name": "PJT Partners Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.005, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.774, "architecture_energy": 65.494, "architecture_maturity": 11.804, "architecture_confidence": 70.88, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.87, "rotation_up": 70.73, "upward_expansion": 89.85, "deceleration": 42.37, "rotation_down": 11.06, "downward_expansion": 14.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 168.487333, 164.335455, 160.080439, 156.784197 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 171.34, "trend_reference": 156.111207, "distance_from_trend": 0.097551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 135.949106, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260325, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.970978, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057878, "excess_performance": -0.067747, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260325, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059298, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.06971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098397, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057878, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.343156, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2032494, "relative_activity": 1.021579, "balance": 1.343156, "dry_up": 1.103489, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071817, "annualized_volatility": 0.294803, "from_high_reference": -0.121229, "from_low_reference": 0.343589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.111207, "fair_value_reference": 135.949106, "structural_low": 127.524103, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.023507, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.013589, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.106304, "worst_return": -0.049868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040498, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.021169, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100426, "worst_return": -0.067375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038233, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.060328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.25126, "worst_return": 0.037396, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 134.1707, "relative_strength": -7.252006, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.035538, "energy": 34.785667, "activity_lines": [ 160.565333, 158.07661, 155.197533, 154.236212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 169.07, "volume": 1485067, "typical_volume": 1965007.75, "trend": 156.386954, "fair_value": 134.767264, "relative_strength": -4.86704, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.93783, "energy": 51.286043, "activity_lines": [ 164.013333, 160.299176, 156.92022, 155.04881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 168.31, "volume": 2542410, "typical_volume": 2005538.4, "trend": 156.364533, "fair_value": 135.340744, "relative_strength": -5.839565, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.020061, "energy": 49.789685, "activity_lines": [ 166.301333, 162.150973, 158.449659, 155.818038 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 171.34, "volume": 2032494, "typical_volume": 1989560.35, "trend": 156.111207, "fair_value": 135.949106, "relative_strength": -6.970978, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.774372, "energy": 65.493686, "activity_lines": [ 168.487333, 164.335455, 160.080439, 156.784197 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }