{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58db00c8-471a-406a-919a-4711ea604783", "symbol": "KDP", "name": "Keurig Dr Pepper Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.414, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.421, "architecture_energy": 21.715, "architecture_maturity": 59.654, "architecture_confidence": 76.985, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.07, "rotation_up": 22.91, "upward_expansion": 54.78, "deceleration": 91.05, "rotation_down": 31.28, "downward_expansion": 18.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.470667, 31.073934, 30.493113, 29.798542 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.01, "trend_reference": 29.047919, "distance_from_trend": 0.03312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.339015, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010845, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.720827, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065581, "excess_performance": -0.121873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03312, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010845, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042342, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104033, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065581, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.22421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68481284, "relative_activity": 1.103219, "balance": 1.22421, "dry_up": 1.010812, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06734, "annualized_volatility": 0.285692, "from_high_reference": -0.142909, "from_low_reference": 0.219506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.047919, "fair_value_reference": 30.339015, "structural_low": 24.875, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006651, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.041811, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.066551, "worst_return": -0.065405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.068591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122122, "worst_return": -0.043722, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026102, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.030981, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.07699, "worst_return": -0.056112, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054942, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.071311, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.055965, "worst_return": -0.085712, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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30.19131, 29.526096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.68, "volume": 47963036, "typical_volume": 60307984.0, "trend": 28.844833, "fair_value": 30.345995, "relative_strength": -4.808939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.661338, "energy": 31.35905, "activity_lines": [ 31.136667, 31.274625, 30.247307, 29.584394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.12, "volume": 71983428, "typical_volume": 61527116.85, "trend": 28.965867, "fair_value": 30.346654, "relative_strength": -0.163054, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.186668, "energy": 21.586338, "activity_lines": [ 30.912667, 31.295181, 30.432468, 29.731179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.01, "volume": 68481284, "typical_volume": 62074052.75, "trend": 29.047919, "fair_value": 30.339015, "relative_strength": -7.720827, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.420964, "energy": 21.715011, "activity_lines": [ 30.470667, 31.073934, 30.493113, 29.798542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }