{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58dd5d86-282d-4e80-bd16-6814f2d5bbe0", "symbol": "EQPA3", "name": "Equatorial Par\u00e1 Distribuidora de Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.473, "architecture_energy": 49.887, "architecture_maturity": 27.106, "architecture_confidence": 90.716, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.34, "rotation_up": 24.63, "upward_expansion": 8.45, "deceleration": 47.54, "rotation_down": 52.01, "downward_expansion": 81.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.312, 5.36562, 5.616347, 5.833474 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.32, "trend_reference": 6.034608, "distance_from_trend": -0.118418, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.702094, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067009, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.463488, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121435, "excess_performance": -0.064386, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118418, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017062, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067009, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0349, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.26796, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51900, "relative_activity": 0.917447, "balance": 1.26796, "dry_up": 0.845855, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071255, "annualized_volatility": 0.303922, "from_high_reference": -0.262483, "from_low_reference": 0.106029 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.034608, "fair_value_reference": 5.702094, "structural_low": 4.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.023333, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.020785, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.14433, "worst_return": -0.055375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.081772, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.050973, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.443299, "worst_return": -0.045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.215236, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.114804, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.543267, "worst_return": -0.076667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.113005, "fair_value": 5.689344, "relative_strength": -17.787389, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.201259, "energy": 58.378331, "activity_lines": [ 5.498605, 5.605853, 5.985, 6.082939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.37, "volume": 258900, "typical_volume": 50720.0, "trend": 6.107172, "fair_value": 5.693692, "relative_strength": -16.370855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.84413, "energy": 51.12803, "activity_lines": [ 5.443908, 5.532718, 5.906725, 6.035003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.3, "volume": 45200, "typical_volume": 52205.0, "trend": 6.096061, "fair_value": 5.695901, "relative_strength": -14.987237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.097705, "energy": 51.082883, "activity_lines": [ 5.381029, 5.470372, 5.826167, 5.982928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.29, "volume": 46500, "typical_volume": 53895.0, "trend": 6.081673, "fair_value": 5.698713, "relative_strength": -14.826274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.65515, "energy": 61.189536, "activity_lines": [ 5.334, 5.42442, 5.749937, 5.930924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.31, "volume": 47800, "typical_volume": 55150.0, "trend": 6.058792, "fair_value": 5.700422, "relative_strength": -15.815073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.07771, "energy": 49.47175, "activity_lines": [ 5.303333, 5.39098, 5.68033, 5.881138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.32, "volume": 51900, "typical_volume": 56570.0, "trend": 6.034608, "fair_value": 5.702094, "relative_strength": -12.463488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.472664, "energy": 49.887222, "activity_lines": [ 5.312, 5.36562, 5.616347, 5.833474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }