{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58e66ee3-b6ef-44a1-adcf-234567088b84", "symbol": "BKG", "name": "The Berkeley Group Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 53.502, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.78, "architecture_energy": 7.511, "architecture_maturity": 20.281, "architecture_confidence": 57.419, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.63, "rotation_up": 31.47, "upward_expansion": 32.09, "deceleration": 42.4, "rotation_down": 25.28, "downward_expansion": 47.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3504.666667, 3479.963636, 3443.4, 3494.873118 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3626.0, "trend_reference": 3626.333333, "distance_from_trend": -9.2e-05, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4216.803509, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.140107, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.267453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131705, "excess_performance": -0.18294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -9.2e-05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034745, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.140107, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079686, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.58837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1083606, "relative_activity": 0.704064, "balance": 2.58837, "dry_up": 0.743665, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04795, "annualized_volatility": 0.330415, "from_high_reference": -0.183701, "from_low_reference": 0.296853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3626.333333, "fair_value_reference": 4216.803509, "structural_low": 2796.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025791, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.004764, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.14311, "worst_return": -0.12454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.00637, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025656, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.167051, "worst_return": -0.142715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.095536, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.094927, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205935, "worst_return": 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-0.109813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076332, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041645, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096621, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": 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"typical_volume": 1568542.25, "trend": 3639.533333, "fair_value": 4221.926706, "relative_strength": -13.473232, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.763058, "energy": 21.862533, "activity_lines": [ 3434.266667, 3448.836364, 3422.647619, 3495.746237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3626.0, "volume": 1083606, "typical_volume": 1539073.05, "trend": 3626.333333, "fair_value": 4216.803509, "relative_strength": -10.267453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.779592, "energy": 7.51108, "activity_lines": [ 3504.666667, 3479.963636, 3443.4, 3494.873118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }