{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58e6f506-e4bd-4678-9968-df4f4d129d34", "symbol": "CBCX", "name": "CI Galaxy Blockchain Index ETF CAD", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.749, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.89, "architecture_energy": 38.314, "architecture_maturity": 38.688, "architecture_confidence": 75.178, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.56, "rotation_up": 14.43, "upward_expansion": 18.64, "deceleration": 57.91, "rotation_down": 68.96, "downward_expansion": 48.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.539999, 40.756636, 42.063357, 41.188075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.639999, "trend_reference": 40.507167, "distance_from_trend": -0.046095, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.718681, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.8764, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.150342, "excess_performance": 0.029921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046095, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02726, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150342, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847458, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 400, "relative_activity": 0.446927, "balance": 0.847458, "dry_up": 0.614525, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077202, "annualized_volatility": 0.458359, "from_high_reference": -0.431598, "from_low_reference": 0.257403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.507167, "fair_value_reference": 30.718681, "structural_low": 30.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029559, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.01355, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.418219, "worst_return": -0.260831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.253, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.240233, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.559017, "worst_return": -0.40024, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.33459, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.210458, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.713783, "worst_return": 0.078956, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.819527, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.58891, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.386854, "worst_return": 0.2522, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046243, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233436, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.515769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.285819, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042829, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049419, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082432, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066441, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.089301, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 43.386667, 40.750364, 39.149381, 40.105312 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 46.470001, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 1750.0, "trend": 42.011, "fair_value": 28.751413, "relative_strength": -1.667605, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.419093, "energy": 70.810077, "activity_lines": [ 44.589334, 42.146182, 39.809048, 40.361635 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 47.669998, "volume": 3100, "typical_volume": 1860.0, "trend": 41.642334, "fair_value": 28.980835, "relative_strength": -0.413137, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.832757, "energy": 74.444181, "activity_lines": [ 45.886, 43.560727, 40.567333, 40.726731 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 43.294998, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1835.0, "trend": 41.3575, "fair_value": 29.182213, "relative_strength": -8.726648, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.937316, "energy": 55.348215, "activity_lines": [ 45.357666, 43.965636, 40.901952, 40.833355 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 46.07, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1700.0, "trend": 41.4105, "fair_value": 29.401379, "relative_strength": -4.613594, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.917151, "energy": 45.023465, "activity_lines": [ 45.591999, 44.701545, 41.519357, 41.137387 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 47.470001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1655.0, "trend": 41.643834, "fair_value": 29.621725, "relative_strength": -2.047195, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.299776, "energy": 46.660649, "activity_lines": [ 46.221666, 45.436364, 42.267524, 41.528323 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 43.080002, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1440.0, "trend": 41.461167, "fair_value": 29.809522, "relative_strength": -11.167275, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.186924, "energy": 38.179085, "activity_lines": [ 45.183334, 45.173, 42.579072, 41.620979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 40.740002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1405.0, "trend": 41.255834, "fair_value": 29.982319, "relative_strength": -16.440306, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.913005, "energy": 22.614771, "activity_lines": [ 43.591001, 44.462364, 42.622572, 41.574452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 41.389999, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 1035.0, "trend": 41.102834, "fair_value": 30.135964, "relative_strength": -15.006905, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.344772, "energy": 22.362164, "activity_lines": [ 42.677334, 43.895909, 42.703929, 41.583108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.029999, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 1075.0, "trend": 40.9305, "fair_value": 30.269603, "relative_strength": -21.372395, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.745847, "energy": 31.448386, "activity_lines": [ 40.770667, 42.708909, 42.436048, 41.38486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.029999, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 985.0, "trend": 40.8705, "fair_value": 30.422473, "relative_strength": -15.145359, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.219482, "energy": 27.447433, "activity_lines": [ 40.4, 42.194091, 42.4495, 41.39128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 875.0, "trend": 40.759167, "fair_value": 30.567715, "relative_strength": -17.097866, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.371532, "energy": 27.347308, "activity_lines": [ 40.062, 41.524182, 42.323905, 41.324796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.639999, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 895.0, "trend": 40.507167, "fair_value": 30.718681, "relative_strength": -21.8764, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.889763, "energy": 38.314036, "activity_lines": [ 39.539999, 40.756636, 42.063357, 41.188075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }