{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58e9b7ef-be49-4b13-9a27-57c1c1e66927", "symbol": "BINERO", "name": "Binero Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.879, "architecture_energy": 69.647, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.023, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 22.95, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.41, "rotation_down": 66.91, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.734667, 1.760727, 1.81681, 1.882817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.7, "trend_reference": 1.981667, "distance_from_trend": -0.142136, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.541987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.314257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.234234, "excess_performance": -0.295729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142136, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078723, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331232, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046708, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303143, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052668, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.234234, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.357579, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38814, "relative_activity": 0.6434, "balance": 0.357579, "dry_up": 1.214246, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036199, "annualized_volatility": 0.165382, "from_high_reference": -0.401408, "from_low_reference": 0.011905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.981667, "fair_value_reference": 2.541987, "structural_low": 1.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.018367, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.015998, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.850575, "worst_return": -0.268908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.083781, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.116746, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.9, "worst_return": -0.286458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.138544, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.094908, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.479167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.246231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208054, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.798263, "energy": 80.840381, "activity_lines": [ 1.794, 1.821273, 1.884429, 1.955892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.8, "volume": 74737, "typical_volume": 65374.6, "trend": 2.034667, "fair_value": 2.570385, "relative_strength": -24.68015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.682745, "energy": 64.863237, "activity_lines": [ 1.794667, 1.812909, 1.869762, 1.939677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.75, "volume": 48637, "typical_volume": 67735.95, "trend": 2.017, "fair_value": 2.56109, "relative_strength": -27.160968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.819497, "energy": 68.387485, "activity_lines": [ 1.78, 1.797455, 1.852429, 1.921312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.72, "volume": 130816, "typical_volume": 65042.8, "trend": 1.999667, "fair_value": 2.55109, "relative_strength": -28.762773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.187269, "energy": 68.121575, "activity_lines": [ 1.756, 1.779273, 1.834571, 1.902151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.7, "volume": 38814, "typical_volume": 60326.35, "trend": 1.981667, "fair_value": 2.541987, "relative_strength": -30.314257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.878878, "energy": 69.647186, "activity_lines": [ 1.734667, 1.760727, 1.81681, 1.882817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }