{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58ee9212-afde-4e67-9c42-9b3708fdbe47", "symbol": "00642U", "name": "Yuanta S&P GSCI Crude Oil ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.425, "architecture_energy": 26.315, "architecture_maturity": 47.114, "architecture_confidence": 55.292, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.41, "rotation_up": 51.86, "upward_expansion": 62.35, "deceleration": 70.87, "rotation_down": 13.37, "downward_expansion": 12.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.857333, 25.993454, 26.895857, 26.351785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.799999, "trend_reference": 24.498333, "distance_from_trend": 0.053133, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.315449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.408647, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.527117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.527531, "excess_performance": 0.148219, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053133, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.408647, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.257322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.527531, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0554, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17886361, "relative_activity": 0.34574, "balance": 1.0554, "dry_up": 0.508297, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094723, "annualized_volatility": 0.661564, "from_high_reference": -0.23054, "from_low_reference": 0.765914 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.498333, "fair_value_reference": 18.315449, "structural_low": 16.219999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011661, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.007458, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135417, "worst_return": -0.100675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004499, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.009536, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.615, "worst_return": -0.113786, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020013, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.815082, "worst_return": -0.132951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.262019, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.19546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.754751, "worst_return": -0.094092, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074152, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039663, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014594, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011148, 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23.774667, 25.565273, 26.840476, 25.406946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.9, "volume": 25247906, "typical_volume": 95052553.3, "trend": 23.244333, "fair_value": 18.100064, "relative_strength": -2.525527, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.78571, "energy": 24.711143, "activity_lines": [ 24.3, 25.374182, 26.787476, 25.601226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.139999, "volume": 33417062, "typical_volume": 81986169.75, "trend": 23.758667, "fair_value": 18.189615, "relative_strength": 10.95013, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.019114, "energy": 19.732497, "activity_lines": [ 26.354667, 26.008727, 27.097286, 26.046107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.84, "volume": 28632640, "typical_volume": 59782357.85, "trend": 24.143333, "fair_value": 18.258269, "relative_strength": 0.299924, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.378812, "energy": 23.906768, "activity_lines": [ 26.907333, 26.058909, 27.049286, 26.244903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.799999, "volume": 17886361, "typical_volume": 51733555.85, "trend": 24.498333, "fair_value": 18.315449, "relative_strength": -5.527117, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.425166, "energy": 26.314796, "activity_lines": [ 26.857333, 25.993454, 26.895857, 26.351785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }