{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58f28b97-1650-4fb3-a00b-5c86029ee83b", "symbol": "KSCL", "name": "Kaveri Seed Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -52.131, "architecture_energy": 70.165, "architecture_maturity": 11.269, "architecture_confidence": 79.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.78, "rotation_up": 18.96, "upward_expansion": 25.14, "deceleration": 40.21, "rotation_down": 76.05, "downward_expansion": 64.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 801.020011, 835.582735, 866.053095, 866.309569 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 764.450012, "trend_reference": 864.623332, "distance_from_trend": -0.115858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 915.289158, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164799, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.159328, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137092, "excess_performance": -0.093383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047386, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164799, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.283399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175134, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.01116, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 535527, "relative_activity": 1.159303, "balance": 0.01116, "dry_up": 0.742855, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066881, "annualized_volatility": 0.339539, "from_high_reference": -0.372738, "from_low_reference": 0.084173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 864.623332, "fair_value_reference": 915.289158, "structural_low": 705.099976, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010318, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019885, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0362, "worst_return": -0.106738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.066619, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.012622, "worst_return": -0.152043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.18047, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.118229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.543061, "worst_return": -0.267921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 835.5, "volume": 271891, "typical_volume": 540478.45, "trend": 875.51333, "fair_value": 912.585133, "relative_strength": -8.670557, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.675532, "energy": 31.077338, "activity_lines": [ 861.663342, 870.597276, 886.986664, 879.068169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 782.450012, "volume": 325013, "typical_volume": 489865.3, "trend": 869.144997, "fair_value": 913.996724, "relative_strength": -16.136221, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.490411, "energy": 57.34904, "activity_lines": [ 829.570011, 853.490915, 877.309284, 873.064084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 764.450012, "volume": 535527, "typical_volume": 461938.85, "trend": 864.623332, "fair_value": 915.289158, "relative_strength": -18.159328, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.131243, "energy": 70.165299, "activity_lines": [ 801.020011, 835.582735, 866.053095, 866.309569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }