{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58f66f93-f7ab-45df-8935-359327f911fd", "symbol": "BEP", "name": "Brookfield Renewable Partners LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.698, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.945, "architecture_energy": 15.281, "architecture_maturity": 29.796, "architecture_confidence": 83.091, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.44, "rotation_up": 17.47, "upward_expansion": 41.2, "deceleration": 78.72, "rotation_down": 36.25, "downward_expansion": 32.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.843333, 33.279273, 33.882097, 33.471689 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.2, "trend_reference": 32.551657, "distance_from_trend": 0.019917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.653896, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.840995, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114694, "excess_performance": -0.010931, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069478, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114694, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.398415, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4709131, "relative_activity": 1.069491, "balance": 1.398415, "dry_up": 1.249162, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063206, "annualized_volatility": 0.225658, "from_high_reference": -0.128952, "from_low_reference": 0.446822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.551657, "fair_value_reference": 24.653896, "structural_low": 28.944093, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.024573, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002657, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.151407, "worst_return": -0.27249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.095093, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.075584, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.148885, "worst_return": -0.297435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09577, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288497, "worst_return": -0.133589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022116, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119408, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0164, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.828808, "energy": 15.068703, "activity_lines": [ 33.852, 34.565105, 34.207747, 33.29014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.76, "volume": 3863890, "typical_volume": 4126736.15, "trend": 31.924616, "fair_value": 24.467017, "relative_strength": -0.738213, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.246631, "energy": 15.839225, "activity_lines": [ 33.036, 34.021774, 34.045781, 33.291316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.12, "volume": 8620578, "typical_volume": 4370145.7, "trend": 32.13715, "fair_value": 24.519679, "relative_strength": 3.95066, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.911082, "energy": 19.758488, "activity_lines": [ 32.844, 33.760519, 34.011852, 33.368437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.86, "volume": 4807396, "typical_volume": 4455007.7, "trend": 32.322446, "fair_value": 24.58491, "relative_strength": 1.832767, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.132737, "energy": 19.660203, "activity_lines": [ 32.706667, 33.468182, 33.93794, 33.415073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.2, "volume": 4709131, "typical_volume": 4403152.4, "trend": 32.551657, "fair_value": 24.653896, "relative_strength": -0.840995, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.944601, "energy": 15.280584, "activity_lines": [ 32.843333, 33.279273, 33.882097, 33.471689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }