{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58f6af1f-242e-4ec9-b67c-f3f25bb99a7e", "symbol": "MFC", "name": "Manulife Financial Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.136, "architecture_energy": 78.443, "architecture_maturity": 43.403, "architecture_confidence": 77.55, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 79.92, "upward_expansion": 94.81, "deceleration": 43.95, "rotation_down": 12.26, "downward_expansion": 16.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.508, 60.137454, 57.446198, 55.260716 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 61.779999, "trend_reference": 52.914994, "distance_from_trend": 0.167533, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.090085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.580452, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.27316, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.21177, "excess_performance": 0.091349, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.167533, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071604, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.580452, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081654, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.112732, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053807, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.21177, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29390100, "relative_activity": 1.386981, "balance": 0.822721, "dry_up": 1.010853, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036979, "annualized_volatility": 0.19971, "from_high_reference": -0.028311, "from_low_reference": 0.562982 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.914994, "fair_value_reference": 39.090085, "structural_low": 43.823644, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.005749, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.010237, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.145649, "worst_return": -0.11128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.063095, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.014728, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.258268, "worst_return": -0.123539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.086348, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.037905, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.360747, "worst_return": -0.086679, "sufficient": true }, { 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10.007681, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.208412, "energy": 89.286513, "activity_lines": [ 57.991334, 56.459254, 54.212993, 52.765582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.740002, "volume": 15473400, "typical_volume": 22730300.0, "trend": 51.696181, "fair_value": 38.341471, "relative_strength": 13.976483, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.980392, "energy": 93.482016, "activity_lines": [ 59.045334, 57.451022, 55.044546, 53.374362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.560001, "volume": 13182300, "typical_volume": 21378005.0, "trend": 52.109234, "fair_value": 38.588163, "relative_strength": 14.822127, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.178674, "energy": 92.685961, "activity_lines": [ 60.078001, 58.473286, 55.894116, 54.010737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.259998, "volume": 27634000, "typical_volume": 21098130.0, "trend": 52.556085, "fair_value": 38.841196, "relative_strength": 16.199522, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.933791, "energy": 91.223838, "activity_lines": [ 61.042, 59.435273, 56.73297, 54.665625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 61.779999, "volume": 29390100, "typical_volume": 21189980.0, "trend": 52.914994, "fair_value": 39.090085, "relative_strength": 11.27316, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.135977, "energy": 78.443225, "activity_lines": [ 61.508, 60.137454, 57.446198, 55.260716 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }