{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58f86048-8974-4aa1-82f3-9d992df23487", "symbol": "301040", "name": "Zhangjiagang Zhonghuan Hailu High-End Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.615, "architecture_energy": 53.003, "architecture_maturity": 29.432, "architecture_confidence": 88.991, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.69, "rotation_up": 19.41, "upward_expansion": 7.91, "deceleration": 54.41, "rotation_down": 63.24, "downward_expansion": 83.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.729333, 24.301818, 26.739524, 28.670753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.58, "trend_reference": 30.807, "distance_from_trend": -0.137209, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.4425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300232, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.870507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199156, "excess_performance": -0.206556, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137209, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300232, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118705, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017753, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199156, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648973, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22707497, "relative_activity": 1.064357, "balance": 0.648973, "dry_up": 0.79382, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128234, "annualized_volatility": 0.745624, "from_high_reference": -0.394257, "from_low_reference": 0.369397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.807, "fair_value_reference": 20.4425, "structural_low": 19.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.02076, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.002385, "regime_survival": 0.944444, "best_return": 0.339623, "worst_return": -0.452717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.125115, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.053694, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.064643, "worst_return": -0.328601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.097597, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011397, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.570029, "worst_return": -0.463197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 87.857161, "activity_lines": [ 22.836001, 24.960546, 27.661667, 29.50585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.459999, "volume": 10304804, "typical_volume": 22108565.35, "trend": 30.867333, "fair_value": 20.399231, "relative_strength": -21.937039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.281712, "energy": 79.766714, "activity_lines": [ 22.522667, 24.167637, 26.960286, 28.947355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.58, "volume": 22707497, "typical_volume": 21334464.45, "trend": 30.807, "fair_value": 20.4425, "relative_strength": -11.870507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.615481, "energy": 53.002857, "activity_lines": [ 23.729333, 24.301818, 26.739524, 28.670753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }