{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58fb3375-bb73-413b-8723-7fcc46302104", "symbol": "EWY", "name": "iShares MSCI South Korea ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.62, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 0.332, "architecture_energy": 22.418, "architecture_maturity": 59.167, "architecture_confidence": 69.215, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.69, "rotation_up": 14.17, "upward_expansion": 42.33, "deceleration": 87.61, "rotation_down": 49.32, "downward_expansion": 38.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 2847.691325, 3040.455265, 3097.632559, 2953.912959 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2840.0, "trend_reference": 2736.160999, "distance_from_trend": 0.037951, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1493.659375, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.901371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 25.220481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.322776, "excess_performance": 0.377443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037951, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.215894, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.901371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.57443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.252205, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.447319, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.322776, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.100494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32578, "relative_activity": 0.377741, "balance": 0.100494, "dry_up": 1.373235, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125483, "annualized_volatility": 0.582368, "from_high_reference": -0.259066, "from_low_reference": 1.179685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2736.160999, "fair_value_reference": 1493.659375, "structural_low": 2090.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018058, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.021039, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.243142, "worst_return": -0.069282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.092466, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.120779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.467478, "worst_return": -0.102669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.03454, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.015402, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.1875, "worst_return": -0.111197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092131, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02101, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062938, "active": false }, { 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"direction": 33.603551, "energy": 21.26574, "activity_lines": [ 3191.399984, 3288.929985, 3129.108747, 2925.506572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2899.98999, "volume": 21311, "typical_volume": 86040.8, "trend": 2676.627665, "fair_value": 1471.825632, "relative_strength": 31.709788, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.187778, "energy": 24.033613, "activity_lines": [ 3045.249984, 3215.16926, 3129.259129, 2942.510077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2720.0, "volume": 263161, "typical_volume": 94996.5, "trend": 2706.627665, "fair_value": 1482.176543, "relative_strength": 21.271374, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.703444, "energy": 20.42578, "activity_lines": [ 2901.303988, 3112.540354, 3108.905368, 2945.308292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2840.0, "volume": 32578, "typical_volume": 86244.35, "trend": 2736.160999, "fair_value": 1493.659375, "relative_strength": 25.220481, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.331589, "energy": 22.41834, "activity_lines": [ 2847.691325, 3040.455265, 3097.632559, 2953.912959 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }