{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58fbeadf-36df-4bee-b1a6-fb9a51481ba7", "symbol": "GENF", "name": "Genflow Biosciences plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.044, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.507, "architecture_energy": 38.939, "architecture_maturity": 4.432, "architecture_confidence": 49.627, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.7, "rotation_up": 20.95, "upward_expansion": 15.74, "deceleration": 45.82, "rotation_down": 57.66, "downward_expansion": 57.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.018967, 0.019536, 0.020515, 0.020574 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0205, "trend_reference": 0.02039, "distance_from_trend": 0.005395, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.017549, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.773942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02381, "excess_performance": -0.075045, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005395, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017465, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168142, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173466, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027739, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.468883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.290205, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12206194, "relative_activity": 1.528929, "balance": 0.290205, "dry_up": 1.045441, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134296, "annualized_volatility": 0.658093, "from_high_reference": -0.342949, "from_low_reference": 2.727273 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.02039, "fair_value_reference": 0.017549, "structural_low": 0.01211, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02939, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.209877, "worst_return": -0.316327, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.069444, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.294753, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.300998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.17284, "worst_return": -0.416667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.154321, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.031223, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": 0.08642, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.188889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.194444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.263158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.26087, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.646154, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.432432, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.212963, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.223881, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0245, "volume": 6713888, "typical_volume": 8974483.65, "trend": 0.024833, "fair_value": 0.042549, "relative_strength": 2.183083, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.34863, "energy": 7.600405, "activity_lines": [ 0.020483, 0.020768, 0.021346, 0.020959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.01925, "volume": 6055327, "typical_volume": 7390509.4, "trend": 0.020373, "fair_value": 0.01761, "relative_strength": 2.305281, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.661353, "energy": 18.088528, "activity_lines": [ 0.02, 0.020423, 0.021169, 0.020887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.019, "volume": 3181117, "typical_volume": 7178389.6, "trend": 0.020407, "fair_value": 0.017602, "relative_strength": -1.301881, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.777088, "energy": 31.387863, "activity_lines": [ 0.019567, 0.020118, 0.020971, 0.020798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.01675, "volume": 11942446, "typical_volume": 7465976.0, "trend": 0.020315, "fair_value": 0.017581, "relative_strength": -14.751208, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.995711, "energy": 52.196655, "activity_lines": [ 0.018467, 0.01945, 0.020557, 0.020562 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0205, "volume": 12206194, "typical_volume": 7983494.55, "trend": 0.02039, "fair_value": 0.017549, "relative_strength": 2.773942, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.507026, "energy": 38.939344, "activity_lines": [ 0.018967, 0.019536, 0.020515, 0.020574 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }