{ "ticker": { "uuid": "58ff92cd-063e-489b-8293-65d2b911e1f9", "symbol": "S32", "name": "South32 Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.119, "architecture_energy": 35.355, "architecture_maturity": 20.809, "architecture_confidence": 68.219, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.18, "rotation_up": 62.91, "upward_expansion": 67.35, "deceleration": 58.64, "rotation_down": 15.95, "downward_expansion": 15.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 238.133333, 229.290909, 229.410477, 228.896605 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 260.0, "trend_reference": 228.076956, "distance_from_trend": 0.139966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 177.437601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.465304, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.196135, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133033, "excess_performance": 0.081798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.465304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195369, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.231961, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020617, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133033, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.330419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1707210, "relative_activity": 0.732489, "balance": 2.330419, "dry_up": 0.867754, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082308, "annualized_volatility": 0.459968, "from_high_reference": -0.018868, "from_low_reference": 1.110274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 228.076956, "fair_value_reference": 177.437601, "structural_low": 174.910004, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.014278, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.008649, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.141885, "worst_return": -0.181083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019531, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052558, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.207769, "worst_return": -0.192546, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031204, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051158, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.647975, "worst_return": -0.16772, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 2385468.3, "trend": 223.935467, "fair_value": 176.802372, "relative_strength": 14.647524, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.669496, "energy": 24.92132, "activity_lines": [ 217.56, 221.501818, 225.14381, 225.856066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 237.0, "volume": 1920450, "typical_volume": 2398033.6, "trend": 225.936174, "fair_value": 177.027692, "relative_strength": 13.501456, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.918152, "energy": 4.228342, "activity_lines": [ 225.053333, 223.363636, 226.200953, 226.698939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 260.0, "volume": 1707210, "typical_volume": 2330696.65, "trend": 228.076956, "fair_value": 177.437601, "relative_strength": 23.196135, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.119236, "energy": 35.354801, "activity_lines": [ 238.133333, 229.290909, 229.410477, 228.896605 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }