{ "ticker": { "uuid": "590293f4-4b2c-4422-a7eb-5320708bbac3", "symbol": "GNFC", "name": "Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.204, "architecture_energy": 24.219, "architecture_maturity": 45.451, "architecture_confidence": 91.703, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.08, "rotation_up": 29.2, "upward_expansion": 55.06, "deceleration": 89.15, "rotation_down": 25.99, "downward_expansion": 18.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 515.71333, 519.081818, 511.190476, 495.358279 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 535.5, "trend_reference": 479.663333, "distance_from_trend": 0.116408, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 555.289294, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035638, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.648625, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.153846, "excess_performance": 0.197555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019573, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035638, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072061, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.106486, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051704, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.010317, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4355065, "relative_activity": 2.24835, "balance": 1.010317, "dry_up": 1.125087, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064914, "annualized_volatility": 0.345227, "from_high_reference": -0.077916, "from_low_reference": 0.467123 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 479.663333, "fair_value_reference": 555.289294, "structural_low": 365.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.006953, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.013762, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.265853, "worst_return": -0.083361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.257545, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.141393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.416775, "worst_return": 0.103697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.328667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.188932, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.372827, "worst_return": 0.265647, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.14576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.145604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017013, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.080735, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064507, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 487.4245, "volume": 1966669, "typical_volume": 6042204.35, "trend": 506.247097, "fair_value": 428.876543, "relative_strength": -14.723122, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum 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535.5, "volume": 4355065, "typical_volume": 1937004.85, "trend": 479.663333, "fair_value": 555.289294, "relative_strength": 10.648625, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.2036, "energy": 24.218622, "activity_lines": [ 515.71333, 519.081818, 511.190476, 495.358279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }