{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5902f933-9255-4c87-94e8-52995f71bea5", "symbol": "RDAC", "name": "Rising Dragon Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.706, "architecture_energy": 4.357, "architecture_maturity": 21.116, "architecture_confidence": 66.721, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.62, "rotation_up": 25.9, "upward_expansion": 24.15, "deceleration": 47.76, "rotation_down": 30.66, "downward_expansion": 25.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.233333, 6.039818, 6.59681, 6.519896 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.31, "trend_reference": 6.500076, "distance_from_trend": -0.029242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.950016, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.294973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.50344, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.139154, "excess_performance": -0.326608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029242, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173455, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.294973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15065, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.325034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057935, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.585754, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10557, "relative_activity": 0.011374, "balance": 1.585754, "dry_up": 0.103812, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.292383, "annualized_volatility": 1.061373, "from_high_reference": -0.736974, "from_low_reference": 0.374728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.500076, "fair_value_reference": 8.950016, "structural_low": 4.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.017637, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015901, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.051667, "worst_return": -0.016393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034426, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 9.99, "volume": 1288679, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 10.01, "volume": 130543, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.726, 6.476182, 6.751037, 6.676561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.55, "volume": 185973, "typical_volume": 921831.35, "trend": 6.820742, "fair_value": 9.041663, "relative_strength": -40.721909, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.770268, "energy": 27.973684, "activity_lines": [ 5.659333, 6.184818, 6.661071, 6.584126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.15, "volume": 142341, "typical_volume": 928307.4, "trend": 6.660076, "fair_value": 9.008039, "relative_strength": -32.347546, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.659089, "energy": 19.359833, "activity_lines": [ 5.829333, 6.046727, 6.625143, 6.540852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.6, "volume": 46548, "typical_volume": 929810.6, "trend": 6.574742, "fair_value": 8.980361, "relative_strength": -26.823709, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.290055, "energy": 8.058731, "activity_lines": [ 6.119333, 6.041545, 6.627881, 6.536976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.31, "volume": 10557, "typical_volume": 928167.35, "trend": 6.500076, "fair_value": 8.950016, "relative_strength": -32.50344, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.705929, "energy": 4.357047, "activity_lines": [ 6.233333, 6.039818, 6.59681, 6.519896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }