{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59058ece-dbe6-4025-9fd3-a86973058134", "symbol": "300206", "name": "Edan Instruments, Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.171, "architecture_energy": 62.42, "architecture_maturity": 15.341, "architecture_confidence": 89.115, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.01, "rotation_up": 15.41, "upward_expansion": 12.17, "deceleration": 43.32, "rotation_down": 65.43, "downward_expansion": 85.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.809333, 12.041273, 12.758744, 13.161891 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.37, "trend_reference": 13.619751, "distance_from_trend": -0.09176, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.226954, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.101813, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.093782, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116688, "excess_performance": -0.124087, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018569, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.101813, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208882, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090938, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028188, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116688, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.385331, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23088315, "relative_activity": 0.698569, "balance": 0.385331, "dry_up": 0.843897, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071264, "annualized_volatility": 0.380057, "from_high_reference": -0.248133, "from_low_reference": 0.123524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.619751, "fair_value_reference": 11.226954, "structural_low": 11.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.0175, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.005108, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.224944, "worst_return": -0.237033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.084409, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.06001, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.298401, "worst_return": -0.196743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.110099, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.109632, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.224449, "worst_return": -0.066763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -16.298702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.039504, "energy": 87.332494, "activity_lines": [ 11.65, 12.220545, 13.018737, 13.366447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.74, "volume": 23262822, "typical_volume": 34520304.6, "trend": 13.62493, "fair_value": 11.23394, "relative_strength": -9.638639, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.272776, "energy": 80.300922, "activity_lines": [ 11.62, 12.055091, 12.852324, 13.242855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.37, "volume": 23088315, "typical_volume": 33050879.25, "trend": 13.619751, "fair_value": 11.226954, "relative_strength": -9.093782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.170632, "energy": 62.420323, "activity_lines": [ 11.809333, 12.041273, 12.758744, 13.161891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }