{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5906be84-d4ce-4a69-acbd-b3f35e50229f", "symbol": "000430", "name": "Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.33, "architecture_energy": 73.699, "architecture_maturity": 15.652, "architecture_confidence": 84.598, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.96, "rotation_up": 8.98, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 37.25, "rotation_down": 73.31, "downward_expansion": 90.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.278, 6.632364, 7.092524, 7.22772 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.46, "trend_reference": 7.346333, "distance_from_trend": -0.12065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.032436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.081399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.759996, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.104022, "excess_performance": -0.111422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048608, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.081399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011219, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.104022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.641143, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38136701, "relative_activity": 1.106163, "balance": 0.641143, "dry_up": 1.209576, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110026, "annualized_volatility": 0.382429, "from_high_reference": -0.359762, "from_low_reference": 0.131349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.346333, "fair_value_reference": 7.032436, "structural_low": 5.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.009786, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.015617, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": -0.151515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.003344, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037715, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.168126, "worst_return": -0.124665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.09699, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.0603, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.314815, "worst_return": -0.198391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 7.512, "fair_value": 7.062692, "relative_strength": -20.668094, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.86144, "energy": 74.952729, "activity_lines": [ 6.808, 7.203455, 7.445524, 7.468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.85, "volume": 35151200, "typical_volume": 32963110.85, "trend": 7.442667, "fair_value": 7.049615, "relative_strength": -23.642708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.434434, "energy": 83.096854, "activity_lines": [ 6.420667, 6.913091, 7.287381, 7.360774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.31, "volume": 39005996, "typical_volume": 33729305.9, "trend": 7.389667, "fair_value": 7.040321, "relative_strength": -15.933247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.289687, "energy": 77.168654, "activity_lines": [ 6.294667, 6.750182, 7.180048, 7.287699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.46, "volume": 38136701, "typical_volume": 34476565.3, "trend": 7.346333, "fair_value": 7.032436, "relative_strength": -17.759996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.329877, "energy": 73.698937, "activity_lines": [ 6.278, 6.632364, 7.092524, 7.22772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }