{ "ticker": { "uuid": "590c34b1-6654-459e-a80e-e7f2204f7793", "symbol": "600825", "name": "Shanghai Xinhua Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.09, "architecture_energy": 31.661, "architecture_maturity": 79.33, "architecture_confidence": 82.517, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.88, "rotation_up": 26.54, "upward_expansion": 16.37, "deceleration": 46.92, "rotation_down": 31.95, "downward_expansion": 61.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.888667, 4.835636, 5.032806, 5.289649 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.02, "trend_reference": 5.695589, "distance_from_trend": -0.118616, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.578368, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.768887, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.272762, "excess_performance": -0.229558, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118616, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092888, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161475, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008113, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59645429, "relative_activity": 1.325808, "balance": 0.516721, "dry_up": 1.446747, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084032, "annualized_volatility": 0.286744, "from_high_reference": -0.339569, "from_low_reference": 0.130631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.695589, "fair_value_reference": 5.578368, "structural_low": 4.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.002611, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.001604, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.241546, "worst_return": -0.135397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.011724, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.03187, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.649077, "worst_return": -0.206882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.078077, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.108147, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.518526, "worst_return": -0.281872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.774667, 4.897215, 5.238636, 5.533126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.89, "volume": 76455995, "typical_volume": 50348863.7, "trend": 5.828053, "fair_value": 5.574668, "relative_strength": -18.65716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.234802, "energy": 53.736939, "activity_lines": [ 4.82, 4.861256, 5.178495, 5.469328 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.58, "volume": 74621354, "typical_volume": 48501884.55, "trend": 5.773236, "fair_value": 5.574574, "relative_strength": -24.11058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.047474, "energy": 52.206591, "activity_lines": [ 4.76, 4.787937, 5.095992, 5.388809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 49622042, "typical_volume": 44256544.5, "trend": 5.733745, "fair_value": 5.575897, "relative_strength": -17.420096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.17506, "energy": 37.70834, "activity_lines": [ 4.828667, 4.801273, 5.058269, 5.335697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.02, "volume": 59645429, "typical_volume": 44987974.5, "trend": 5.695589, "fair_value": 5.578368, "relative_strength": -17.768887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.090327, "energy": 31.661458, "activity_lines": [ 4.888667, 4.835636, 5.032806, 5.289649 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }