{ "ticker": { "uuid": "591bac66-cf0a-4de0-ae89-c6ce93df242b", "symbol": "SWDA", "name": "iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.601, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.294, "architecture_energy": 68.169, "architecture_maturity": 79.605, "architecture_confidence": 65.628, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 54.87, "upward_expansion": 82.97, "deceleration": 71.14, "rotation_down": 28.33, "downward_expansion": 11.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.132667, 125.544546, 123.646953, 121.097376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 128.669998, "trend_reference": 118.12, "distance_from_trend": 0.089316, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.944167, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.287419, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.224549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142413, "excess_performance": -0.028479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089316, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041491, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.287419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042049, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002634, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.785038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 715335, "relative_activity": 1.551121, "balance": 2.785038, "dry_up": 1.254118, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017827, "annualized_volatility": 0.107214, "from_high_reference": -0.002326, "from_low_reference": 0.241509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.12, "fair_value_reference": 99.944167, "structural_low": 107.209999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.010002, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.003759, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.066531, "worst_return": -0.082337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.027271, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.001032, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.099703, "worst_return": -0.152873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085851, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.007471, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.151534, "worst_return": -0.074461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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77.3519, "energy": 85.212982, "activity_lines": [ 125.155336, 124.255092, 121.067334, 118.828581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 124.860001, "volume": 529676, "typical_volume": 532226.95, "trend": 116.745666, "fair_value": 99.017436, "relative_strength": -3.048191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.6748, "energy": 75.804635, "activity_lines": [ 125.225335, 124.531819, 121.710143, 119.382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.279999, "volume": 564703, "typical_volume": 500535.1, "trend": 117.208333, "fair_value": 99.314295, "relative_strength": -2.489172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.352139, "energy": 65.557182, "activity_lines": [ 125.299334, 124.787637, 122.339238, 119.932602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 124.230003, "volume": 503748, "typical_volume": 481496.5, "trend": 117.637667, "fair_value": 99.613205, "relative_strength": -3.868217, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.009834, "energy": 59.063031, "activity_lines": [ 124.992668, 124.775274, 122.811048, 120.385613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.669998, "volume": 715335, "typical_volume": 461173.0, "trend": 118.12, "fair_value": 99.944167, "relative_strength": -3.224549, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.294149, "energy": 68.168953, "activity_lines": [ 126.132667, 125.544546, 123.646953, 121.097376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }