{ "ticker": { "uuid": "591ce962-1db3-4fde-9bad-2802f952e4d7", "symbol": "HCI", "name": "HCI Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.843, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.357, "architecture_energy": 50.672, "architecture_maturity": 24.707, "architecture_confidence": 65.955, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.69, "rotation_up": 58.15, "upward_expansion": 77.76, "deceleration": 66.73, "rotation_down": 18.45, "downward_expansion": 6.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 181.234667, 178.869636, 170.52478, 166.857425 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 188.69, "trend_reference": 163.789272, "distance_from_trend": 0.152029, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 127.356197, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.481593, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.751441, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.161475, "excess_performance": 0.03585, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152029, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.481593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1684, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161475, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.508905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 923624, "relative_activity": 1.041537, "balance": 2.508905, "dry_up": 0.934941, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061517, "annualized_volatility": 0.319602, "from_high_reference": -0.096942, "from_low_reference": 0.359542 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 163.789272, "fair_value_reference": 127.356197, "structural_low": 144.38074, 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"activity_lines": [ 179.514667, 172.610545, 165.119308, 163.516773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 178.83, "volume": 682024, "typical_volume": 865186.4, "trend": 163.535426, "fair_value": 125.75228, "relative_strength": -2.300275, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.566298, "energy": 73.899734, "activity_lines": [ 179.971333, 174.707091, 166.773404, 164.477174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 175.01, "volume": 874818, "typical_volume": 883346.65, "trend": 163.270688, "fair_value": 126.506526, "relative_strength": -5.502449, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.348535, "energy": 50.015303, "activity_lines": [ 178.141333, 175.701273, 168.016823, 165.217469 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 188.69, "volume": 923624, "typical_volume": 886789.05, "trend": 163.789272, "fair_value": 127.356197, "relative_strength": -1.751441, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.356955, "energy": 50.671821, "activity_lines": [ 181.234667, 178.869636, 170.52478, 166.857425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }