{ "ticker": { "uuid": "591ed652-6a55-436f-813d-3701561cd3f1", "symbol": "ZAP", "name": "Zaptec ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.465, "architecture_energy": 31.302, "architecture_maturity": 78.715, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.7, "rotation_up": 31.97, "upward_expansion": 60.34, "deceleration": 88.15, "rotation_down": 27.73, "downward_expansion": 21.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.669999, 46.250871, 44.941413, 41.565386 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.599998, "trend_reference": 36.723359, "distance_from_trend": 0.268947, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.057569, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.112653, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 29.722496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.004301, "excess_performance": 0.879307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.268947, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.260091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.112653, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170488, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.297225, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.004301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.642773, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1065105, "relative_activity": 0.747737, "balance": 3.642773, "dry_up": 0.602627, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082218, "annualized_volatility": 0.603598, "from_high_reference": -0.089844, "from_low_reference": 1.17757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.723359, "fair_value_reference": 22.057569, "structural_low": 22.799999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.045175, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.062527, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.375, "worst_return": -0.165161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.234992, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.092622, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.55855, "worst_return": -0.180464, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.694056, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.444451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.996124, "worst_return": -0.541943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.141713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.171487, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.908701, "worst_return": -0.625276, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.31821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038078, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001415, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024641, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215762, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.326375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008214, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027368, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0938, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163961, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.242449, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02081, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.5, "volume": 1696050, "typical_volume": 1710208.7, "trend": 32.935, "fair_value": 40.291387, "relative_strength": -8.46421, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.864354, "energy": 57.72308, "activity_lines": [ 47.363333, 47.205617, 42.728809, 38.837113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.549999, "volume": 900678, "typical_volume": 1533845.9, "trend": 34.568359, "fair_value": 21.765197, "relative_strength": 34.525476, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.365843, "energy": 47.766194, "activity_lines": [ 46.703333, 47.072896, 43.390948, 39.593671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.099998, "volume": 664373, "typical_volume": 1469716.15, "trend": 35.261693, "fair_value": 21.859428, "relative_strength": 26.063434, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.586734, "energy": 40.616718, "activity_lines": [ 45.746665, 46.587024, 43.846896, 40.208615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.650002, "volume": 803463, "typical_volume": 1435866.45, "trend": 35.958359, "fair_value": 21.951159, "relative_strength": 28.731081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.359702, "energy": 30.596868, "activity_lines": [ 45.56, 46.331158, 44.388083, 40.878828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.599998, "volume": 1065105, "typical_volume": 1424438.7, "trend": 36.723359, "fair_value": 22.057569, "relative_strength": 29.722496, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.465051, "energy": 31.301791, "activity_lines": [ 45.669999, 46.250871, 44.941413, 41.565386 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }