{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5920bb4a-52c2-446b-9685-b635ebf42907", "symbol": "601003", "name": "Liuzhou Iron&Steel Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.673, "architecture_energy": 25.219, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.511, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.94, "rotation_up": 30.39, "upward_expansion": 23.48, "deceleration": 44.17, "rotation_down": 30.67, "downward_expansion": 62.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.731333, 3.633273, 3.768949, 4.020638 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.75, "trend_reference": 4.370958, "distance_from_trend": -0.142065, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.769864, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005269, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.387404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.300373, "excess_performance": -0.257169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142065, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103876, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005269, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300373, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.466455, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248807201, "relative_activity": 3.272779, "balance": 0.466455, "dry_up": 1.919957, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09161, "annualized_volatility": 0.530466, "from_high_reference": -0.414062, "from_low_reference": 0.150307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.370958, "fair_value_reference": 3.769864, "structural_low": 3.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.011942, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.020159, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 0.247059, "worst_return": -0.197287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.053628, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.085346, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.209125, "worst_return": -0.237216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.155652, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.090053, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107438, "worst_return": -0.322068, "sufficient": true }, { 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-27.746561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.233945, "energy": 64.114074, "activity_lines": [ 3.454, 3.511518, 3.787984, 4.084375 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.12, "volume": 178770790, "typical_volume": 70707000.0, "trend": 4.413625, "fair_value": 3.771338, "relative_strength": -12.309943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.048195, "energy": 35.119502, "activity_lines": [ 3.678, 3.610283, 3.793133, 4.063453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.75, "volume": 248807201, "typical_volume": 76023209.85, "trend": 4.370958, "fair_value": 3.769864, "relative_strength": -21.387404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.673108, "energy": 25.218904, "activity_lines": [ 3.731333, 3.633273, 3.768949, 4.020638 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }