{ "ticker": { "uuid": "592a19ce-fb37-465f-a148-b9ff0123cf96", "symbol": "TDOC", "name": "TD Global Healthcare Leaders Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.547, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.329, "architecture_energy": 46.161, "architecture_maturity": 22.841, "architecture_confidence": 57.059, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.16, "rotation_up": 62.08, "upward_expansion": 52.98, "deceleration": 41.36, "rotation_down": 23.3, "downward_expansion": 13.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.132, 19.991539, 19.508625, 19.38798 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.5, "trend_reference": 19.402389, "distance_from_trend": 0.056571, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.308962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.11967, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.74571, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017332, "excess_performance": -0.103089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000392, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.11967, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110863, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.057457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085756, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017332, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.283426, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18300, "relative_activity": 0.563945, "balance": 1.283426, "dry_up": 0.811248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025875, "annualized_volatility": 0.163232, "from_high_reference": -0.009183, "from_low_reference": 0.160606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.402389, "fair_value_reference": 18.308962, "structural_low": 18.005073, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027199, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.019236, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.084308, "worst_return": -0.095784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077507, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006144, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112102, "worst_return": -0.071885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08835, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.024025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116552, "worst_return": -0.065335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.456987, "energy": 64.385788, "activity_lines": [ 19.9805, 19.596879, 19.204587, 19.243081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.870001, "volume": 40600, "typical_volume": 40510.0, "trend": 19.389121, "fair_value": 18.261447, "relative_strength": -6.495844, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.334474, "energy": 66.729619, "activity_lines": [ 19.987667, 19.708629, 19.284248, 19.274486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 35100, "typical_volume": 33010.0, "trend": 19.401715, "fair_value": 18.284835, "relative_strength": -5.014409, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.498818, "energy": 41.343849, "activity_lines": [ 19.992, 19.821646, 19.377831, 19.317123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.5, "volume": 18300, "typical_volume": 32450.0, "trend": 19.402389, "fair_value": 18.308962, "relative_strength": -5.74571, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.328718, "energy": 46.161346, "activity_lines": [ 20.132, 19.991539, 19.508625, 19.38798 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }