{ "ticker": { "uuid": "592d4a49-2cf3-48c1-800d-b62c76e73d4c", "symbol": "4197", "name": "Visgeneer Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.442, "architecture_energy": 69.758, "architecture_maturity": 17.912, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.98, "rotation_up": 15.29, "upward_expansion": 16.33, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 66.84, "downward_expansion": 92.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.318667, 8.576909, 9.084905, 9.365097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.17, "trend_reference": 9.599333, "distance_from_trend": -0.148899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.339679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20984, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.153043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134534, "excess_performance": -0.575906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040131, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20984, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120096, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.42153, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050561, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134534, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.35034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26205, "relative_activity": 0.041446, "balance": 0.35034, "dry_up": 0.147994, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104416, "annualized_volatility": 0.949325, "from_high_reference": -0.636889, "from_low_reference": 0.05148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.599333, "fair_value_reference": 10.339679, "structural_low": 7.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.001075, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.448276, "median_excess_return": -0.028921, "regime_survival": 0.758621, "best_return": 0.56383, "worst_return": -0.12, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.040984, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.049379, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.266667, "worst_return": -0.139918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.123162, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.176955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119617, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03301, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"close": 8.75, "volume": 75306, "typical_volume": 627701.75, "trend": 9.767333, "fair_value": 10.408462, "relative_strength": -37.958224, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.341002, "energy": 43.619558, "activity_lines": [ 8.922, 8.980364, 9.527095, 9.659118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.25, "volume": 118726, "typical_volume": 625086.45, "trend": 9.71, "fair_value": 10.384423, "relative_strength": -39.876922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.478285, "energy": 60.397987, "activity_lines": [ 8.659333, 8.842545, 9.379714, 9.561226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.15, "volume": 154052, "typical_volume": 631063.4, "trend": 9.65, "fair_value": 10.363269, "relative_strength": -41.1609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.24699, "energy": 64.435726, "activity_lines": [ 8.447333, 8.701091, 9.228381, 9.460581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.17, "volume": 26205, "typical_volume": 632270.8, "trend": 9.599333, "fair_value": 10.339679, "relative_strength": -42.153043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.441923, "energy": 69.758215, "activity_lines": [ 8.318667, 8.576909, 9.084905, 9.365097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }