{ "ticker": { "uuid": "592ebb3d-0d97-4e5f-acd4-f8d2f0c5f0b4", "symbol": "CROP", "name": "Purpose Credit Opportunities Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.06, "architecture_energy": 37.645, "architecture_maturity": 42.084, "architecture_confidence": 79.245, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.21, "rotation_up": 35.4, "upward_expansion": 61.44, "deceleration": 86.17, "rotation_down": 27.72, "downward_expansion": 22.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.294676, 19.306421, 19.271024, 19.195312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.32, "trend_reference": 19.10042, "distance_from_trend": 0.011496, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.23989, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.235256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025365, "excess_performance": -0.095056, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011496, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120657, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018834, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.159756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35500, "relative_activity": 0.502299, "balance": 6.159756, "dry_up": 0.423417, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004034, "annualized_volatility": 0.027172, "from_high_reference": -0.002174, "from_low_reference": 0.073427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.10042, "fair_value_reference": 17.23989, "structural_low": 18.78798, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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"2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01451, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.140006, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00119, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"gate": "up", "direction": 49.843994, "energy": 47.917304, "activity_lines": [ 19.313052, 19.313125, 19.231625, 19.152223 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.321636, "volume": 41100, "typical_volume": 70430.0, "trend": 19.072354, "fair_value": 17.183482, "relative_strength": -7.351568, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.448353, "energy": 47.588916, "activity_lines": [ 19.312345, 19.317684, 19.249332, 19.169391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.24, "volume": 14600, "typical_volume": 69950.0, "trend": 19.085868, "fair_value": 17.211702, "relative_strength": -7.004784, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.063759, "energy": 37.402951, "activity_lines": [ 19.287124, 19.304918, 19.257298, 19.180207 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.32, "volume": 35500, "typical_volume": 70675.0, "trend": 19.10042, "fair_value": 17.23989, "relative_strength": -9.235256, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.059729, "energy": 37.644819, "activity_lines": [ 19.294676, 19.306421, 19.271024, 19.195312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }