{ "ticker": { "uuid": "593d467f-a90d-4fff-a6ca-d4d10cbaea2a", "symbol": "CHSRII", "name": "UBS MSCI Switzerland IMI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF CHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.122, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.086, "architecture_energy": 73.528, "architecture_maturity": 23.969, "architecture_confidence": 70.476, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 70.12, "upward_expansion": 89.01, "deceleration": 51.24, "rotation_down": 20.31, "downward_expansion": 13.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.125333, 16.009273, 15.669286, 15.446834 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.458, "trend_reference": 15.246333, "distance_from_trend": 0.079473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.455132, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.138558, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.373531, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084904, "excess_performance": 0.002021, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024702, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.138558, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013735, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026671, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084904, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.401585, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16496, "relative_activity": 0.496581, "balance": 0.401585, "dry_up": 0.598435, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019294, "annualized_volatility": 0.154771, "from_high_reference": -0.001214, "from_low_reference": 0.208015 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.246333, "fair_value_reference": 14.455132, "structural_low": 13.624, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.001358, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002319, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.046896, "worst_return": -0.10131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.001865, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.006795, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.072858, "worst_return": -0.05241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.014436, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.034547, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.049859, "worst_return": -0.012405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"activity_lines": [ 15.992667, 15.7596, 15.405667, 15.267269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.78, "volume": 26298, "typical_volume": 35563.45, "trend": 15.168933, "fair_value": 14.408696, "relative_strength": -4.532477, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.807052, "energy": 82.205306, "activity_lines": [ 15.941733, 15.801673, 15.46901, 15.308443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.059999, "volume": 11104, "typical_volume": 33741.65, "trend": 15.204, "fair_value": 14.43044, "relative_strength": -2.676204, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.754179, "energy": 63.159623, "activity_lines": [ 15.973066, 15.876909, 15.553971, 15.365931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.458, "volume": 16496, "typical_volume": 33219.15, "trend": 15.246333, "fair_value": 14.455132, "relative_strength": -1.373531, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.08604, "energy": 73.527857, "activity_lines": [ 16.125333, 16.009273, 15.669286, 15.446834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }