{ "ticker": { "uuid": "593dacab-8e25-432e-be34-642b34cbab56", "symbol": "VIKASECO", "name": "Vikas Ecotech Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.155, "architecture_energy": 86.792, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.689, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 9.26, "upward_expansion": 21.35, "deceleration": 37.16, "rotation_down": 82.3, "downward_expansion": 99.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.116667, 1.161091, 1.226857, 1.260882 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.11, "trend_reference": 1.320667, "distance_from_trend": -0.159515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.764744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.598516, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.745582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.264901, "excess_performance": -0.221192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.598516, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081117, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069615, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264901, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.351149, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8793895, "relative_activity": 1.187041, "balance": 0.351149, "dry_up": 1.301721, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060291, "annualized_volatility": 0.446991, "from_high_reference": -0.506667, "from_low_reference": 0.121212 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.320667, "fair_value_reference": 2.764744, "structural_low": 0.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.046664, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.034749, "regime_survival": 0.90625, "best_return": 0.274194, "worst_return": -0.168539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.104034, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.114094, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.140271, "worst_return": -0.311526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.095023, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.194368, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.017241, "worst_return": -0.465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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1.250667, 1.276364, 1.302238, 1.339656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.21, "volume": 8114235, "typical_volume": 7885447.25, "trend": 1.398667, "fair_value": 2.815641, "relative_strength": -24.342246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.201984, "energy": 73.032654, "activity_lines": [ 1.234, 1.259091, 1.292048, 1.326645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.15, "volume": 11402657, "typical_volume": 7783273.8, "trend": 1.382667, "fair_value": 2.802179, "relative_strength": -27.464033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.630169, "energy": 81.862964, "activity_lines": [ 1.202667, 1.234182, 1.277429, 1.310602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.11, "volume": 8597077, "typical_volume": 7732298.4, "trend": 1.360333, "fair_value": 2.789423, "relative_strength": -27.315163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.579944, "energy": 88.360228, "activity_lines": [ 1.166, 1.206727, 1.260143, 1.293011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.09, "volume": 9780265, "typical_volume": 7722465.85, "trend": 1.337667, "fair_value": 2.776859, "relative_strength": -29.45555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.932904, "energy": 90.458744, "activity_lines": [ 1.133333, 1.180364, 1.242048, 1.27557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.11, "volume": 8793895, "typical_volume": 7408249.1, "trend": 1.320667, "fair_value": 2.764744, "relative_strength": -27.745582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.154537, "energy": 86.792187, "activity_lines": [ 1.116667, 1.161091, 1.226857, 1.260882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }