{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5947f8a7-10dd-43ce-941e-f4404904cf23", "symbol": "4332", "name": "Jadwa REIT Al Haramain Fund", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 90.673, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.393, "architecture_energy": 22.049, "architecture_maturity": 38.701, "architecture_confidence": 60.391, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.08, "rotation_up": 15.36, "upward_expansion": 14.11, "deceleration": 65.93, "rotation_down": 59.35, "downward_expansion": 41.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.872, 4.912545, 4.911619, 4.909685 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.85, "trend_reference": 4.910138, "distance_from_trend": -0.012248, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.51313, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120282, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.498195, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018336, "excess_performance": 0.013493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012248, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120282, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004982, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031977, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018336, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733393, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146166, "relative_activity": 0.818043, "balance": 0.733393, "dry_up": 0.645837, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02157, "annualized_volatility": 0.082121, "from_high_reference": -0.11327, "from_low_reference": 0.030747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.910138, "fair_value_reference": 5.51313, "structural_low": 4.75, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01138, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.001253, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.041892, "worst_return": -0.037086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.017568, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022936, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0209, "worst_return": -0.149606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.117268, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.048535, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.102703, "worst_return": -0.131833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 5.564266, "relative_strength": 1.305071, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.129954, "energy": 40.721176, "activity_lines": [ 4.975333, 4.958545, 4.924143, 4.918377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.91, "volume": 107658, "typical_volume": 188780.3, "trend": 4.908715, "fair_value": 5.550733, "relative_strength": 1.530976, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.851051, "energy": 17.259703, "activity_lines": [ 4.950667, 4.954909, 4.924286, 4.918647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.89, "volume": 56445, "typical_volume": 173356.8, "trend": 4.910623, "fair_value": 5.537301, "relative_strength": 0.480253, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.530095, "energy": 12.743672, "activity_lines": [ 4.924667, 4.946545, 4.922286, 4.917439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.85, "volume": 151317, "typical_volume": 172368.65, "trend": 4.909563, "fair_value": 5.525273, "relative_strength": 1.665449, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.872846, "energy": 16.826795, "activity_lines": [ 4.894, 4.929455, 4.916762, 4.913528 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.85, "volume": 146166, "typical_volume": 178677.55, "trend": 4.910138, "fair_value": 5.51313, "relative_strength": -0.498195, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.392512, "energy": 22.048638, "activity_lines": [ 4.872, 4.912545, 4.911619, 4.909685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }