{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5948cea4-07bc-4e18-adf8-e7f1b51d4741", "symbol": "000838", "name": "CASIN Real Estate Development Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.976, "architecture_energy": 66.096, "architecture_maturity": 14.443, "architecture_confidence": 69.456, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.65, "rotation_up": 75.69, "upward_expansion": 58.65, "deceleration": 15.48, "rotation_down": 14.04, "downward_expansion": 28.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.417333, 2.187455, 2.02681, 2.066667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.5, "trend_reference": 2.211333, "distance_from_trend": 0.13054, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.812436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111091, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.07885, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116608, "excess_performance": -0.124008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.13054, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171578, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111091, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.246121, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.364191, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116608, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.116099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.116099, "dry_up": 1.081816, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104615, "annualized_volatility": 0.617248, "from_high_reference": -0.415888, "from_low_reference": 0.644737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.211333, "fair_value_reference": 2.812436, "structural_low": 1.52, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035364, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031419, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088028, "worst_return": -0.017301, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.103806, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043725, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.103806, "worst_return": -0.103806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.16609, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.150512, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.16609, "worst_return": -0.16609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.001023, "energy": 22.252784, "activity_lines": [ 1.856667, 1.805273, 1.864048, 2.03628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.16, "volume": 298123296, "typical_volume": 166152014.85, "trend": 2.281, "fair_value": 2.841667, "relative_strength": -18.304874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.74202, "energy": 18.011006, "activity_lines": [ 1.987333, 1.869273, 1.880714, 2.024946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.41, "volume": 230146497, "typical_volume": 169706741.3, "trend": 2.251333, "fair_value": 2.829551, "relative_strength": -8.478312, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.302061, "energy": 31.282324, "activity_lines": [ 2.168667, 1.974364, 1.923429, 2.033269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.5, "volume": 159134040, "typical_volume": 169734212.45, "trend": 2.231, "fair_value": 2.822051, "relative_strength": -2.954228, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.34224, "energy": 46.665498, "activity_lines": [ 2.320667, 2.087818, 1.975476, 2.049312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 158854134.95, "trend": 2.211333, "fair_value": 2.812436, "relative_strength": -7.07885, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.976281, "energy": 66.095664, "activity_lines": [ 2.417333, 2.187455, 2.02681, 2.066667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }