{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5953fdb1-16ea-4b17-9c0a-cd66a061b191", "symbol": "603515", "name": "Opple Lighting Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.346, "architecture_energy": 43.064, "architecture_maturity": 28.63, "architecture_confidence": 92.71, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 23.01, "upward_expansion": 5.85, "deceleration": 53.24, "rotation_down": 51.86, "downward_expansion": 79.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.009334, 17.07173, 17.670302, 18.065262 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.889999, "trend_reference": 18.497812, "distance_from_trend": -0.086919, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.886452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00021, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.860904, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.165926, "excess_performance": -0.122722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086919, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012882, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00021, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068609, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061696, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165926, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.572957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9438486, "relative_activity": 1.25293, "balance": 0.572957, "dry_up": 0.984656, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058288, "annualized_volatility": 0.224848, "from_high_reference": -0.187214, "from_low_reference": 0.025501 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.497812, "fair_value_reference": 16.886452, "structural_low": 16.469999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.00934, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.006938, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.29942, "worst_return": -0.128371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017109, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020229, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.248719, "worst_return": -0.168447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041973, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009585, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.282923, "worst_return": -0.182309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.037157, "energy": 68.555551, "activity_lines": [ 17.154473, 17.568434, 18.231004, 18.484655 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.950001, "volume": 5399420, "typical_volume": 7589164.3, "trend": 18.629145, "fair_value": 16.90912, "relative_strength": -3.1376, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.33465, "energy": 66.827227, "activity_lines": [ 17.049524, 17.375834, 18.075983, 18.37471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 7364403, "typical_volume": 7403010.45, "trend": 18.573145, "fair_value": 16.899391, "relative_strength": -5.483768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.843124, "energy": 57.598092, "activity_lines": [ 16.928667, 17.189067, 17.905487, 18.250249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.360001, "volume": 7467840, "typical_volume": 7413286.4, "trend": 18.544145, "fair_value": 16.894062, "relative_strength": -1.964537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.580879, "energy": 42.44058, "activity_lines": [ 17.070001, 17.157356, 17.807037, 18.171982 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.889999, "volume": 9438486, "typical_volume": 7533128.45, "trend": 18.497812, "fair_value": 16.886452, "relative_strength": -6.860904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.345704, "energy": 43.064239, "activity_lines": [ 17.009334, 17.07173, 17.670302, 18.065262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }