{ "ticker": { "uuid": "595948f9-caf4-40e2-bf79-6a0e27480496", "symbol": "002400", "name": "Guangdong Advertising Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.439, "architecture_energy": 51.822, "architecture_maturity": 83.964, "architecture_confidence": 70.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.54, "rotation_up": 26.63, "upward_expansion": 20.63, "deceleration": 66.86, "rotation_down": 49.84, "downward_expansion": 72.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.461333, 6.416449, 7.069317, 7.661579 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.91, "trend_reference": 8.588526, "distance_from_trend": -0.195438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.100596, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026842, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.486062, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.429868, "excess_performance": -0.437268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072802, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026842, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.429868, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.535586, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 651869737, "relative_activity": 1.681867, "balance": 0.535586, "dry_up": 1.207692, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096983, "annualized_volatility": 0.441933, "from_high_reference": -0.502878, "from_low_reference": 0.229537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.588526, "fair_value_reference": 7.100596, "structural_low": 5.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.008889, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.000303, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.269388, "worst_return": -0.163382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037773, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034453, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.653105, "worst_return": -0.084756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.139884, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.144984, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.512995, "worst_return": -0.072197, "sufficient": true }, { 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6.925689, 7.68138, 8.288651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.79, "volume": 350250639, "typical_volume": 374435687.8, "trend": 8.786808, "fair_value": 7.080976, "relative_strength": -32.863391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.560232, "energy": 91.146686, "activity_lines": [ 6.125333, 6.61433, 7.448923, 8.089719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.8, "volume": 319577120, "typical_volume": 361109454.5, "trend": 8.705498, "fair_value": 7.088174, "relative_strength": -32.483889, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.01603, "energy": 87.512058, "activity_lines": [ 5.962, 6.373756, 7.239801, 7.897022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.8, "volume": 550644961, "typical_volume": 369507608.55, "trend": 8.653859, "fair_value": 7.095938, "relative_strength": -19.19853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.326955, "energy": 63.991772, "activity_lines": [ 6.211333, 6.370884, 7.143964, 7.774086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.91, "volume": 651869737, "typical_volume": 387586974.7, "trend": 8.588526, "fair_value": 7.100596, "relative_strength": -21.486062, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.438652, "energy": 51.822489, "activity_lines": [ 6.461333, 6.416449, 7.069317, 7.661579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }