{ "ticker": { "uuid": "595a4fdd-43c3-46ee-96be-4ddd8c766205", "symbol": "LY17", "name": "Lyxor UCITS ETF Pan Africa", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.44, "architecture_energy": 6.957, "architecture_maturity": 11.415, "architecture_confidence": 54.14, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.16, "rotation_up": 23.1, "upward_expansion": 14.14, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 33.72, "downward_expansion": 64.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.594133, 14.510836, 14.590933, 14.647394 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.514, "trend_reference": 14.835267, "distance_from_trend": 0.045751, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.130962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.39377, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.642148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004272, "excess_performance": -0.169974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.39377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106421, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075231, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004272, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.007074, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036691, "annualized_volatility": 0.32445, "from_high_reference": -0.076108, "from_low_reference": 0.347169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.835267, "fair_value_reference": 11.130962, "structural_low": 12.992, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 8.3e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012991, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.038402, "worst_return": -0.050922, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027383, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079122, "worst_return": -0.02917, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.099316, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.082449, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.101843, "worst_return": 0.002961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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10.844705, "relative_strength": -11.983603, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.819666, "energy": 7.611817, "activity_lines": [ 14.698133, 14.766145, 14.748543, 14.825432 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 14.786, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2450.4, "trend": 14.8022, "fair_value": 10.883417, "relative_strength": -14.273226, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.716006, "energy": 3.81107, "activity_lines": [ 14.730533, 14.750364, 14.738619, 14.828396 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 14.168, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2448.7, "trend": 14.819267, "fair_value": 10.917449, "relative_strength": -16.158638, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.469722, "energy": 44.082716, "activity_lines": [ 14.544533, 14.628909, 14.67399, 14.78748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.696, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2382.65, "trend": 14.847067, "fair_value": 10.953564, "relative_strength": -14.991008, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.539534, "energy": 36.512588, "activity_lines": [ 14.554267, 14.6308, 14.665743, 14.779527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.418, "volume": 128, "typical_volume": 2364.15, "trend": 14.865867, "fair_value": 10.989756, "relative_strength": -15.438449, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.369063, "energy": 38.589072, "activity_lines": [ 14.5016, 14.587127, 14.635686, 14.751845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.916, "volume": 28, "typical_volume": 2227.9, "trend": 14.851733, "fair_value": 11.022173, "relative_strength": -16.672269, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.151063, "energy": 59.084707, "activity_lines": [ 14.297467, 14.451891, 14.564305, 14.690563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.212, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1517.8, "trend": 14.835933, "fair_value": 11.057365, "relative_strength": -15.937736, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.540688, "energy": 50.222995, "activity_lines": [ 14.235867, 14.391745, 14.533343, 14.64929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.114, "volume": 9, "typical_volume": 1307.65, "trend": 14.821467, "fair_value": 11.090141, "relative_strength": -16.33965, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.059066, "energy": 57.17842, "activity_lines": [ 14.179867, 14.320836, 14.495248, 14.602714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.514, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1307.65, "trend": 14.835267, "fair_value": 11.130962, "relative_strength": -10.642148, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.440156, "energy": 6.956561, "activity_lines": [ 14.594133, 14.510836, 14.590933, 14.647394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }