{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59627033-3206-4ce4-a7e1-dc6739d89065", "symbol": "CTKA4", "name": "Karsten S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.057, "architecture_energy": 55.885, "architecture_maturity": 72.371, "architecture_confidence": 72.196, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.64, "rotation_up": 27.78, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 65.51, "rotation_down": 46.81, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.420667, 32.347818, 34.306095, 36.551226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.0, "trend_reference": 39.246, "distance_from_trend": -0.15915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.278974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.267048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.312357, "excess_performance": -0.255308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15915, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050278, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209723, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066474, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.312357, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.21039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1200, "relative_activity": 0.321285, "balance": 0.21039, "dry_up": 1.117805, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052424, "annualized_volatility": 0.374132, "from_high_reference": -0.339604, "from_low_reference": 0.090549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.246, "fair_value_reference": 27.278974, "structural_low": 30.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.022189, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": 0.024928, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.314143, "worst_return": -0.340641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.062999, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.030664, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.489706, "worst_return": -0.407647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.051344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.140182, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.294879, "worst_return": -0.382337, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.604033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.603991, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.229547, "worst_return": -0.412493, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.172083, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.739563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.000286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095026, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022412, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119591, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118482, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039149, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023669, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.74, "volume": 5700, "typical_volume": 3120.0, "trend": 9.133333, "fair_value": 14.715577, "relative_strength": 29.250056, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.586144, "energy": 76.858687, "activity_lines": [ 11.944, 11.324182, 10.609571, 9.863484 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 12.5, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 3280.0, "trend": 9.234333, "fair_value": 14.721282, "relative_strength": 25.945577, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.401987, "energy": 72.944905, "activity_lines": [ 12.271333, 11.610909, 10.875762, 10.080688 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 13.35, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 3305.0, "trend": 9.396, "fair_value": 14.731795, "relative_strength": 31.643299, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.623117, "energy": 74.516918, "activity_lines": [ 12.724, 12.018545, 11.196667, 10.346215 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 11.52, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 3335.0, "trend": 9.469, "fair_value": 14.729038, "relative_strength": 16.040335, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.047845, "energy": 49.657934, "activity_lines": [ 12.41, 12.032545, 11.312571, 10.483247 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 11.11, "volume": 3200, "typical_volume": 3230.0, "trend": 9.569, "fair_value": 14.720833, "relative_strength": 8.658887, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.028252, "energy": 38.179981, "activity_lines": [ 11.961333, 11.942364, 11.366952, 10.589118 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 14.56, "volume": 12800, "typical_volume": 3860.0, "trend": 9.784, "fair_value": 14.734423, "relative_strength": 44.899967, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.083755, "energy": 49.655659, "activity_lines": [ 12.733333, 12.461091, 11.729381, 10.911118 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 15.47, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 3765.0, "trend": 10.065667, "fair_value": 14.744551, "relative_strength": 51.933216, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.737712, "energy": 56.69461, "activity_lines": [ 13.687333, 13.080545, 12.14719, 11.277957 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 14.0, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 3260.0, "trend": 10.272333, "fair_value": 14.752244, "relative_strength": 39.401959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.32985, "energy": 56.43172, "activity_lines": [ 13.953333, 13.335636, 12.386048, 11.531785 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 14.0, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 3045.0, "trend": 10.479, "fair_value": 14.764103, "relative_strength": 36.65341, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.026485, "energy": 71.785478, "activity_lines": [ 14.176, 13.536182, 12.600619, 11.77228 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-20", "close": 12.5, "volume": 400, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.395374, "energy": 92.514095, "activity_lines": [ 32.024666, 33.544363, 37.138333, 38.952323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.049999, "volume": 4100, "typical_volume": 4435.0, "trend": 40.141334, "fair_value": 26.736731, "relative_strength": -20.503643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.784677, "energy": 84.095671, "activity_lines": [ 32.181333, 33.166727, 36.518571, 38.480946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.75, "volume": 11300, "typical_volume": 4245.0, "trend": 39.956667, "fair_value": 26.881731, "relative_strength": -18.849174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.041428, "energy": 77.007407, "activity_lines": [ 32.292666, 32.869818, 35.937857, 38.004086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.0, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 3770.0, "trend": 39.733333, "fair_value": 27.016346, "relative_strength": -20.341467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.998861, "energy": 64.512471, "activity_lines": [ 32.224, 32.583818, 35.329285, 37.490753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.690001, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 3820.0, "trend": 39.519333, "fair_value": 27.145449, "relative_strength": -22.358293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.092653, "energy": 64.456262, "activity_lines": [ 32.118667, 32.314364, 34.734095, 36.971828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.0, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 3735.0, "trend": 39.246, "fair_value": 27.278974, "relative_strength": -16.267048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.056917, "energy": 55.884735, "activity_lines": [ 32.420667, 32.347818, 34.306095, 36.551226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }