{ "ticker": { "uuid": "596753bb-0ac9-4845-a414-fd1092b5c86f", "symbol": "USML", "name": "UBS AG London Branch", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.623, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.017, "architecture_energy": 83.546, "architecture_maturity": 17.77, "architecture_confidence": 68.304, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.0, "rotation_up": 77.42, "upward_expansion": 91.2, "deceleration": 45.16, "rotation_down": 10.29, "downward_expansion": 17.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.908427, 44.152004, 43.352352, 42.932232 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46.7653, "trend_reference": 42.62519, "distance_from_trend": 0.097128, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.378103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218541, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.636829, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079975, "excess_performance": -0.04565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097128, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013367, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218541, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10491, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079975, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.402737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1323, "relative_activity": 1.472208, "balance": 1.402737, "dry_up": 0.873254, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026159, "annualized_volatility": 0.193513, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.200061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.62519, "fair_value_reference": 38.378103, "structural_low": 38.9691, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.015342, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.004028, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.069799, "worst_return": -0.125673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005409, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031346, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.15142, "worst_return": -0.041984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03714, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001156, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.15577, "worst_return": -0.012917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 37.889865, "relative_strength": -5.805266, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.616511, "energy": 30.300637, "activity_lines": [ 42.797887, 42.71246, 42.232434, 42.23256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 44.3386, "volume": 1472, "typical_volume": 977.9, "trend": 42.296883, "fair_value": 37.989255, "relative_strength": -5.28789, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.417115, "energy": 57.559519, "activity_lines": [ 43.357593, 43.043925, 42.442535, 42.369294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 43.4088, "volume": 73, "typical_volume": 928.4, "trend": 42.347263, "fair_value": 38.075374, "relative_strength": -5.585344, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.825274, "energy": 64.392687, "activity_lines": [ 43.49524, 43.161107, 42.558918, 42.441031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.5179, "volume": 381, "typical_volume": 918.5, "trend": 42.371413, "fair_value": 38.164461, "relative_strength": -4.542938, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.16024, "energy": 65.963487, "activity_lines": [ 43.62, 43.260684, 42.691693, 42.516556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.5225, "volume": 1362, "typical_volume": 885.65, "trend": 42.473413, "fair_value": 38.266012, "relative_strength": -3.203193, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.671331, "energy": 71.970227, "activity_lines": [ 43.946513, 43.510513, 42.920825, 42.655336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.7653, "volume": 1323, "typical_volume": 898.65, "trend": 42.62519, "fair_value": 38.378103, "relative_strength": -1.636829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.016702, "energy": 83.545877, "activity_lines": [ 44.908427, 44.152004, 43.352352, 42.932232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }