{ "ticker": { "uuid": "596f0ab3-c8fe-4207-80f6-2d21405996ec", "symbol": "GANA", "name": "Gana Media Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.627, "architecture_energy": 83.146, "architecture_maturity": 86.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.803, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.54, "rotation_up": 11.06, "upward_expansion": 18.35, "deceleration": 38.03, "rotation_down": 81.49, "downward_expansion": 96.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001241, 0.001408, 0.001659, 0.001805 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00105, "trend_reference": 0.002051, "distance_from_trend": -0.488055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.002883, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.635854, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -73.817578, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.637931, "excess_performance": -0.689166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.488055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.371309, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.635854, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360433, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.738176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.637931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.252845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 203134732, "relative_activity": 1.439322, "balance": 0.252845, "dry_up": 0.905029, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.29304, "annualized_volatility": 0.682351, "from_high_reference": -0.829268, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002051, "fair_value_reference": 0.002883, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.046277, "positive_rate": 0.342105, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.050045, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 1.511111, "worst_return": -0.326923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010666, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.617021, "worst_return": -0.644068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.12, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.171258, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.576271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.439108, "energy": 76.534803, "activity_lines": [ 0.001608, 0.001782, 0.001903, 0.00205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00148, "volume": 132591419, "typical_volume": 147197291.65, "trend": 0.002224, "fair_value": 0.002876, "relative_strength": -65.131601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.56882, "energy": 72.661041, "activity_lines": [ 0.001539, 0.001706, 0.001854, 0.001992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00135, "volume": 44781008, "typical_volume": 143045240.5, "trend": 0.002193, "fair_value": 0.002879, "relative_strength": -67.746905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.524744, "energy": 77.953492, "activity_lines": [ 0.001455, 0.001617, 0.001797, 0.001935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00125, "volume": 130408207, "typical_volume": 138222844.65, "trend": 0.002131, "fair_value": 0.002882, "relative_strength": -69.655541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.212862, "energy": 80.564743, "activity_lines": [ 0.001365, 0.001521, 0.001735, 0.001874 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00105, "volume": 203134732, "typical_volume": 141132263.9, "trend": 0.002051, "fair_value": 0.002883, "relative_strength": -73.817578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.626879, "energy": 83.145501, "activity_lines": [ 0.001241, 0.001408, 0.001659, 0.001805 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }