{ "ticker": { "uuid": "597637d9-9224-4167-af00-d18e965e6b87", "symbol": "GOL1S", "name": "SG ETC DAILY SHORT -1X GOLD FUTURE", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.026, "architecture_energy": 46.213, "architecture_maturity": 69.738, "architecture_confidence": 50.198, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.14, "rotation_up": 42.46, "upward_expansion": 70.34, "deceleration": 65.5, "rotation_down": 27.39, "downward_expansion": 20.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.574133, 15.679673, 15.150714, 14.683854 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.8, "trend_reference": 14.1434, "distance_from_trend": 0.046424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.184057, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.36163, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.178722, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.121552, "excess_performance": -0.04934, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0005, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.36163, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091801, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121552, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 23.370787, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50, "relative_activity": 0.146972, "balance": 23.370787, "dry_up": 0.739271, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037297, "annualized_volatility": 0.273837, "from_high_reference": -0.252676, "from_low_reference": 0.276963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.1434, "fair_value_reference": 23.184057, "structural_low": 11.87, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.062001, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.080085, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.103395, "worst_return": -0.136495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.146865, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.20368, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.038117, "worst_return": -0.255612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.17876, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.327695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.074537, "worst_return": -0.282983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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98.634399, "activity_lines": [ 15.573733, 14.955891, 14.289448, 14.04677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.62, "volume": 26, "typical_volume": 436.85, "trend": 14.013533, "fair_value": 23.701128, "relative_strength": -15.58152, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.557134, "energy": 88.814644, "activity_lines": [ 15.697333, 15.170182, 14.462819, 14.149402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.88, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 473.85, "trend": 14.033867, "fair_value": 23.59866, "relative_strength": -12.962884, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.933297, "energy": 89.380386, "activity_lines": [ 15.832666, 15.387236, 14.646771, 14.269819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.247999, "volume": 802, "typical_volume": 486.45, "trend": 14.076, "fair_value": 23.498551, "relative_strength": -8.830902, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.681366, "energy": 91.811926, "activity_lines": [ 15.998533, 15.621963, 14.850866, 14.412667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.7, "volume": 102, "typical_volume": 442.9, "trend": 14.111667, "fair_value": 23.394929, "relative_strength": -10.896794, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.911338, "energy": 65.303028, "activity_lines": [ 15.914933, 15.704982, 14.983305, 14.517441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.034, "volume": 52, "typical_volume": 408.95, "trend": 14.142933, "fair_value": 23.293448, "relative_strength": -8.675121, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.750819, "energy": 65.471155, "activity_lines": [ 15.9396, 15.820182, 15.132886, 14.641462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.8, "volume": 50, "typical_volume": 340.2, "trend": 14.1434, "fair_value": 23.184057, "relative_strength": -17.178722, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.025699, "energy": 46.212709, "activity_lines": [ 15.574133, 15.679673, 15.150714, 14.683854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }