{ "ticker": { "uuid": "597d037d-6487-4813-92a9-f6876856830a", "symbol": "9567", "name": "Ghida Al-Sultan Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.87, "architecture_energy": 55.349, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.03, "rotation_up": 25.15, "upward_expansion": 8.91, "deceleration": 53.67, "rotation_down": 55.4, "downward_expansion": 82.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.832, 18.094727, 18.923619, 20.054968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.59, "trend_reference": 21.713333, "distance_from_trend": -0.143844, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.890321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.594904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.757598, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.273828, "excess_performance": -0.241999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.594904, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017247, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.267576, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046986, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273828, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.243108, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146, "relative_activity": 0.004968, "balance": 0.243108, "dry_up": 0.072392, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073199, "annualized_volatility": 0.390966, "from_high_reference": -0.523333, "from_low_reference": 0.140491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.713333, "fair_value_reference": 45.890321, "structural_low": 16.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.03875, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.038276, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.045349, "worst_return": -0.148259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.138943, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.131862, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.232143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.330162, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.31386, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.132075, "worst_return": -0.383043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.464528, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.412496, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.464528, "worst_return": -0.464528, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016981, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141509, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.567674, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 71.699997, "volume": 1363, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 73.0, "volume": 3694, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 76.0, "volume": 2743, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 18.034, 18.389818, 19.446, 20.620817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.02, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30201.05, "trend": 22.019667, "fair_value": 46.233333, "relative_strength": -32.170623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.305988, "energy": 64.920053, "activity_lines": [ 17.616667, 18.072909, 19.093905, 20.276237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.59, "volume": 146, "typical_volume": 29388.75, "trend": 21.713333, "fair_value": 45.890321, "relative_strength": -26.757598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.870002, "energy": 55.349012, "activity_lines": [ 17.832, 18.094727, 18.923619, 20.054968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }