{ "ticker": { "uuid": "597e257e-bcd3-46c4-bb4d-1b1a67473fc8", "symbol": "TSM3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.437, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.91, "architecture_energy": 25.567, "architecture_maturity": 11.735, "architecture_confidence": 44.517, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.03, "rotation_up": 17.07, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 64.87, "rotation_down": 59.14, "downward_expansion": 40.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.427333, 17.121409, 17.814345, 17.022489 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.945, "trend_reference": 15.94575, "distance_from_trend": -4.7e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.458467, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.468852, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.151613, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.203396, "excess_performance": 0.152161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -4.7e-05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.247565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.468852, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.33015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.181516, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.831387, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.203396, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419285, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29722, "relative_activity": 0.448194, "balance": 0.419285, "dry_up": 0.763085, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.252575, "annualized_volatility": 1.032247, "from_high_reference": -0.386731, "from_low_reference": 3.130829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.94575, "fair_value_reference": 6.458467, "structural_low": 9.3, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.194998, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.17591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.55241, "worst_return": -0.337444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.754554, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.718481, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.097532, "worst_return": -0.301245, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.319745, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.226141, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.478705, "worst_return": 0.160786, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 2.85863, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 2.689886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.140121, "worst_return": 2.577138, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.190837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.274066, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048997, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.616595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046687, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.382442, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.220802, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.602831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.138461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091002, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.01748, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 1.254654, "fair_value": 1.888865, "relative_strength": -2.789692, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.549593, 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21.1775, "volume": 1205, "typical_volume": 65371.05, "trend": 14.895333, "fair_value": 5.992404, "relative_strength": 71.745157, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.54044, "energy": 44.478601, "activity_lines": [ 20.9295, 20.248682, 18.259643, 16.877642 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.305, "volume": 34042, "typical_volume": 65850.8, "trend": 15.247625, "fair_value": 6.105755, "relative_strength": 55.990653, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.078162, "energy": 38.030787, "activity_lines": [ 20.419666, 20.19, 18.514548, 17.162137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.28, "volume": 86828, "typical_volume": 67539.1, "trend": 15.445083, "fair_value": 6.189168, "relative_strength": 12.950175, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.062045, "energy": 14.320317, "activity_lines": [ 18.275833, 19.185773, 18.273536, 17.09971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.12, "volume": 38188, "typical_volume": 66600.15, "trend": 15.647417, "fair_value": 6.277072, "relative_strength": 16.680538, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.244435, "energy": 16.535309, "activity_lines": [ 16.778333, 18.423091, 18.122619, 17.078736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.615, "volume": 47678, "typical_volume": 66320.05, "trend": 15.784417, "fair_value": 6.362998, "relative_strength": 10.079232, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.428934, "energy": 25.208047, "activity_lines": [ 15.7455, 17.621454, 17.912298, 17.012129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.945, "volume": 29722, "typical_volume": 66315.0, "trend": 15.94575, "fair_value": 6.458467, "relative_strength": 18.151613, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.910377, "energy": 25.566985, "activity_lines": [ 15.427333, 17.121409, 17.814345, 17.022489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }