{ "ticker": { "uuid": "598cf428-f655-4821-8113-69559ab0f27d", "symbol": "MTI", "name": "MTI Investment AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.276, "architecture_energy": 43.549, "architecture_maturity": 17.455, "architecture_confidence": 87.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.46, "rotation_up": 15.47, "upward_expansion": 7.11, "deceleration": 44.59, "rotation_down": 57.52, "downward_expansion": 80.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.600333, 0.626091, 0.70731, 0.725269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.61, "trend_reference": 0.733333, "distance_from_trend": -0.168182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.311421, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.534856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.07239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122302, "excess_performance": -0.183797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091472, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.534856, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.370724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.267065, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122302, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.82192, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 993, "relative_activity": 0.055023, "balance": 10.82192, "dry_up": 0.449162, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.266078, "annualized_volatility": 1.45619, "from_high_reference": -0.564286, "from_low_reference": 0.109091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.733333, "fair_value_reference": 1.311421, "structural_low": 0.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.006941, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.002497, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.135784, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.190359, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.410072, "worst_return": -0.337748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.040268, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.017268, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.496403, "worst_return": -0.551613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104545, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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"fair_value": 1.336277, "relative_strength": -32.826088, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.151114, "energy": 49.686917, "activity_lines": [ 0.624333, 0.672273, 0.74131, 0.746086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.55, "volume": 160, "typical_volume": 21486.2, "trend": 0.736333, "fair_value": 1.323701, "relative_strength": -42.898152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.304092, "energy": 49.629851, "activity_lines": [ 0.597333, 0.638727, 0.720976, 0.733419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.61, "volume": 993, "typical_volume": 18046.95, "trend": 0.733333, "fair_value": 1.311421, "relative_strength": -37.07239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.276243, "energy": 43.549029, "activity_lines": [ 0.600333, 0.626091, 0.70731, 0.725269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }