{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5991c8f8-cc0a-41b9-8bfe-e56e1c82ee17", "symbol": "002780", "name": "Beijing Sanfo Outdoor Products Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.666, "architecture_energy": 40.989, "architecture_maturity": 46.273, "architecture_confidence": 81.821, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.65, "rotation_up": 23.26, "upward_expansion": 5.9, "deceleration": 59.47, "rotation_down": 44.77, "downward_expansion": 74.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.668667, 12.733273, 13.514661, 14.017688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.08, "trend_reference": 14.596354, "distance_from_trend": -0.103886, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.606863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03753, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.048045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123324, "excess_performance": -0.130724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.103886, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03753, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.298073, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080897, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123324, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.628265, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30396620, "relative_activity": 1.210062, "balance": 0.628265, "dry_up": 1.55639, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095344, "annualized_volatility": 0.415571, "from_high_reference": -0.31875, "from_low_reference": 0.167857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.596354, "fair_value_reference": 12.606863, "structural_low": 11.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.009609, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.032748, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.278278, "worst_return": -0.135496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.075032, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.055057, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.393143, "worst_return": -0.302026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079552, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.035058, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.163168, "worst_return": -0.239973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-0.089263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.140193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074233, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008481, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 13.76, "volume": 12715030, "typical_volume": 20431878.45, "trend": 12.916667, "fair_value": 15.346987, "relative_strength": 14.791632, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.288988, "energy": 60.000806, "activity_lines": [ 12.771333, 13.147804, 14.026146, 14.439799 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.8, "volume": 48978217, "typical_volume": 23797432.4, "trend": 14.70902, "fair_value": 12.61494, "relative_strength": -19.469266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.180466, "energy": 54.301279, "activity_lines": [ 12.447333, 12.807334, 13.76881, 14.245304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.74, "volume": 38041460, "typical_volume": 24579090.3, "trend": 14.63902, "fair_value": 12.611863, "relative_strength": -11.289239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.509404, "energy": 47.722991, "activity_lines": [ 12.514667, 12.718524, 13.618902, 14.11827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.08, "volume": 30396620, "typical_volume": 25119881.0, "trend": 14.596354, "fair_value": 12.606863, "relative_strength": -13.048045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.665812, "energy": 40.989252, "activity_lines": [ 12.668667, 12.733273, 13.514661, 14.017688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }