{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5996cd08-3025-4389-b0f0-7f321ac1c553", "symbol": "002956", "name": "Guilin Seamild Foods Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.552, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.539, "architecture_energy": 59.887, "architecture_maturity": 11.271, "architecture_confidence": 64.988, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.68, "rotation_up": 18.9, "upward_expansion": 23.27, "deceleration": 40.7, "rotation_down": 63.43, "downward_expansion": 55.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.640667, 18.685455, 19.746891, 19.758399 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.9, "trend_reference": 19.689463, "distance_from_trend": -0.090884, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.861671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.264264, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.09356, "excess_performance": -0.100959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090884, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042213, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391732, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.437241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.09356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788299, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28762806, "relative_activity": 1.342768, "balance": 0.788299, "dry_up": 1.828353, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10873, "annualized_volatility": 0.532683, "from_high_reference": -0.264312, "from_low_reference": 0.380107 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.689463, "fair_value_reference": 12.861671, "structural_low": 15.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.130921, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.027182, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297297, "worst_return": -0.043671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.21771, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.113579, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401247, "worst_return": 0.049751, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.141355, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.444906, "worst_return": -0.152993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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17.0, "volume": 49924692, "typical_volume": 18234495.7, "trend": 19.825116, "fair_value": 12.726905, "relative_strength": -4.374956, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.598319, "energy": 26.259158, "activity_lines": [ 19.590667, 20.37112, 20.55728, 20.247386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.68, "volume": 33544767, "typical_volume": 19087789.4, "trend": 19.768474, "fair_value": 12.763284, "relative_strength": -11.914437, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.927488, "energy": 54.012781, "activity_lines": [ 18.138667, 19.436909, 20.128033, 19.97996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.18, "volume": 44424896, "typical_volume": 20719192.75, "trend": 19.745709, "fair_value": 12.813889, "relative_strength": 3.5045, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.337291, "energy": 53.835064, "activity_lines": [ 17.851333, 19.056909, 19.952238, 19.877477 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.9, "volume": 28762806, "typical_volume": 21420530.05, "trend": 19.689463, "fair_value": 12.861671, "relative_strength": -3.264264, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.539076, "energy": 59.886505, "activity_lines": [ 17.640667, 18.685455, 19.746891, 19.758399 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }