{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5998b7e2-85d9-4745-af21-72346d6c531a", "symbol": "SML", "name": "Synlait Milk Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.322, "architecture_energy": 55.001, "architecture_maturity": 79.432, "architecture_confidence": 85.589, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.26, "rotation_up": 21.53, "upward_expansion": 7.83, "deceleration": 53.58, "rotation_down": 62.52, "downward_expansion": 83.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.380333, 0.388818, 0.406476, 0.423925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.37, "trend_reference": 0.457833, "distance_from_trend": -0.191846, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.659103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.438631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.575368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.301887, "excess_performance": -0.33016, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166313, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.438631, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365754, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.301887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.854376, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145025, "relative_activity": 0.433025, "balance": 1.854376, "dry_up": 1.043143, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082121, "annualized_volatility": 0.332087, "from_high_reference": -0.564706, "from_low_reference": 0.027778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.457833, "fair_value_reference": 0.659103, "structural_low": 0.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.031056, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.03882, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.310345, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.116336, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.115631, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.733333, "worst_return": -0.7, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.105603, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.154953, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.070769, "worst_return": -0.671642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 895440, "typical_volume": 353494.0, "trend": 0.483167, "fair_value": 0.68266, "relative_strength": -32.662271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.767946, "energy": 52.22623, "activity_lines": [ 0.395, 0.406, 0.421595, 0.442591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.38, "volume": 292297, "typical_volume": 347954.75, "trend": 0.474833, "fair_value": 0.674712, "relative_strength": -35.73495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.517478, "energy": 61.734323, "activity_lines": [ 0.388, 0.399364, 0.416214, 0.435935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.385, "volume": 64679, "typical_volume": 343626.15, "trend": 0.466333, "fair_value": 0.666795, "relative_strength": -33.956131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.135711, "energy": 53.833825, "activity_lines": [ 0.385667, 0.395091, 0.41181, 0.43014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.37, "volume": 145025, "typical_volume": 334911.1, "trend": 0.457833, "fair_value": 0.659103, "relative_strength": -36.575368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.322478, "energy": 55.000725, "activity_lines": [ 0.380333, 0.388818, 0.406476, 0.423925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }