{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5998edcb-7bdc-48dd-9fa8-e25c5eccf197", "symbol": "IS-FF404", "name": "iShares IV Public Limited Company - iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.341, "architecture_energy": 63.353, "architecture_maturity": 97.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.119, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.03, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 52.45, "downward_expansion": 77.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.354, 62.298364, 1243.46481, 2225.642602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 64.4, "trend_reference": 3367.747333, "distance_from_trend": -0.980877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4616.393718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.636975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.987377, "excess_performance": -1.016278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.980877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.18209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.836187, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.987377, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.474034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5706, "relative_activity": 1.696346, "balance": 0.474034, "dry_up": 0.973259, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.43495, "annualized_volatility": 6.362909, "from_high_reference": -0.98932, "from_low_reference": 0.129825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3367.747333, "fair_value_reference": 4616.393718, "structural_low": 57.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.016918, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.007432, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.121314, "worst_return": -0.114005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059803, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.047672, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.206549, "worst_return": -0.986852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11077, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.14165, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.180704, "worst_return": -0.155283, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -67.313626, "energy": 85.091231, "activity_lines": [ 63.093333, 683.279091, 2393.416429, 3190.332366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 59.21, "volume": 2081, "typical_volume": 3176.25, "trend": 3885.497333, "fair_value": 4698.012308, "relative_strength": -98.839674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.371608, "energy": 68.394791, "activity_lines": [ 61.922667, 370.849818, 2068.956857, 2932.368043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.47, "volume": 2802, "typical_volume": 3108.15, "trend": 3713.713, "fair_value": 4669.861474, "relative_strength": -98.815168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.149917, "energy": 68.04447, "activity_lines": [ 61.226667, 164.027636, 1769.816286, 2685.592086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.63, "volume": 2506, "typical_volume": 3117.85, "trend": 3542.534, "fair_value": 4643.019359, "relative_strength": -98.706765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.610329, "energy": 67.15403, "activity_lines": [ 61.501333, 61.771455, 1494.745857, 2450.038344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.4, "volume": 5706, "typical_volume": 3363.7, "trend": 3367.747333, "fair_value": 4616.393718, "relative_strength": -98.636975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.341401, "energy": 63.352672, "activity_lines": [ 62.354, 62.298364, 1243.46481, 2225.642602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }