{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59a52644-a017-400d-a5d0-1ed7af3e86ce", "symbol": "IEUX", "name": "iShares MSCI Europe ex-UK UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.004, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.587, "architecture_energy": 69.123, "architecture_maturity": 32.94, "architecture_confidence": 80.196, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 57.72, "upward_expansion": 83.89, "deceleration": 55.82, "rotation_down": 24.49, "downward_expansion": 12.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.830001, 55.560298, 54.607312, 53.839531 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 56.790001, "trend_reference": 53.109704, "distance_from_trend": 0.069296, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.477403, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248752, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.995284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080235, "excess_performance": -0.090656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069296, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034543, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067299, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021873, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080235, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.619216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18309, "relative_activity": 0.707832, "balance": 1.619216, "dry_up": 1.004338, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01826, "annualized_volatility": 0.155028, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.220609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.109704, "fair_value_reference": 45.477403, "structural_low": 47.535, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.004406, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.004516, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.070773, "worst_return": -0.110268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.018377, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.027834, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.083021, "worst_return": -0.081494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.06464, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.037787, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.125251, "worst_return": -0.145072, "sufficient": true }, { 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55.244423, 54.419342, 53.315887, 52.890431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.27, "volume": 79290, "typical_volume": 26970.9, "trend": 52.495435, "fair_value": 45.029607, "relative_strength": -6.132687, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.178683, "energy": 80.224618, "activity_lines": [ 55.391339, 54.7091, 53.564453, 53.081234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.02, "volume": 38897, "typical_volume": 28381.75, "trend": 52.650652, "fair_value": 45.137535, "relative_strength": -5.070189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.280692, "energy": 75.222786, "activity_lines": [ 55.334, 54.885718, 53.782452, 53.244109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.25, "volume": 14794, "typical_volume": 25825.85, "trend": 52.810871, "fair_value": 45.243217, "relative_strength": -4.375515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.388324, "energy": 64.539183, "activity_lines": [ 55.314667, 55.050677, 54.01755, 53.411809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.610001, "volume": 31914, "typical_volume": 25738.5, "trend": 52.959441, "fair_value": 45.358556, "relative_strength": -4.324029, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.115285, "energy": 53.07402, "activity_lines": [ 55.400667, 55.217348, 54.268042, 53.592398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.790001, "volume": 18309, "typical_volume": 25866.3, "trend": 53.109704, "fair_value": 45.477403, "relative_strength": -4.995284, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.587218, "energy": 69.122764, "activity_lines": [ 55.830001, 55.560298, 54.607312, 53.839531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }