{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59ab3713-d4c2-40db-8332-a28bd0c25582", "symbol": "KSM-F68", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) MSCI Emerging Markets", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.728, "architecture_energy": 67.416, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.234, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 53.35, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.877333, 50.252364, 1293.525143, 2165.801462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 49.69, "trend_reference": 3158.371333, "distance_from_trend": -0.984267, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3783.282949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.801026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98941, "excess_performance": -1.01831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984267, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316375, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986866, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.225779, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.98801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.835114, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.095919, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26954, "relative_activity": 1.218687, "balance": 0.095919, "dry_up": 0.707219, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.175658, "annualized_volatility": 6.373318, "from_high_reference": -0.990133, "from_low_reference": 0.046987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3158.371333, "fair_value_reference": 3783.282949, "structural_low": 47.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.0105, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.007866, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.053269, "worst_return": -0.037937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.053421, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.063893, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.180999, "worst_return": -0.085606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006958, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.123523, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.090597, "worst_return": -0.13304, "sufficient": false 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049392, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.104478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", 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"typical_volume": 21719.0, "trend": 3454.765333, "fair_value": 3828.518974, "relative_strength": -98.874322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.27271, "energy": 68.419388, "activity_lines": [ 49.998, 312.572545, 1803.143286, 2595.721914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.49, "volume": 16497, "typical_volume": 20889.75, "trend": 3309.181667, "fair_value": 3805.958013, "relative_strength": -98.80891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.833236, "energy": 67.69466, "activity_lines": [ 50.060667, 138.462364, 1537.713952, 2376.091247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.69, "volume": 26954, "typical_volume": 22117.25, "trend": 3158.371333, "fair_value": 3783.282949, "relative_strength": -98.801026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.728429, "energy": 67.416111, "activity_lines": [ 49.877333, 50.252364, 1293.525143, 2165.801462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }