{ "ticker": { "uuid": "59ac6554-03cd-41dc-a719-e0b34c873dd6", "symbol": "USEP", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - September", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "stage_color": "amber", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "stage_age_weeks": 25, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "transition_score": 40.914, "is_transition_watch": false, "confidence": 52.793, "composite_score": 76.325, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.15, "architecture_energy": 90.994, "architecture_maturity": 41.675, "architecture_confidence": 83.053, "architecture_age_weeks": 14, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.15, "energy": 90.994, "maturity": 41.675, "confidence": 83.053, "confirmation": 49.761, "age_weeks": 14, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 65.47, "upward_expansion": 97.14, "deceleration": 42.06, "rotation_down": 26.26, "downward_expansion": 21.47 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 41.566693, "10": 41.424549, "20": 41.107988, "30": 40.690348 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.372084, "10": 1.136111, "20": 1.759618, "30": 1.461994 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 3.244521, "fan_width_change_4": 0.812207, "fan_width_percentile": 0.913462, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 2.208268, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": -0.356708, "price_acceptance": 0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.567222, "accepted_above": 0.833333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.0 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The advance is losing directional efficiency near the upper range.", "body": "Stage 3 is a distribution diagnosis only when a flatter trend, weakening relative strength and supply evidence cluster. It can resolve back upward or break into Stage 4.", "phase": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "Stage 3 range intact", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 41/100." }, "latest_close": 41.7199, "sma_30": 40.22444, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.037178, "sma_30_slope": 0.019359, "fair_value": 35.475128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176032, "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.0021, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": -3.091096, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 1.111514, "range_position_52": 0.999977, "returns": { "13": 0.027964, "26": 0.054598, "52": 0.122834 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.030723, "52": -0.092001 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 27.16, "2": 77.32, "3": 74.5, "4": 22.68 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.037178, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.019359, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176032, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": false, "value": -0.0021, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": false, "value": -0.030911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.011115, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054598, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.36975, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89814, "ratio_20": 2.386683, "up_down_ratio_13": 2.36975, "dry_up_ratio": 1.219171, "accumulation_weeks": 3, "distribution_weeks": 3 }, "base": { "high_26": 41.6, "low_26": 38.065, "depth": 0.084976, "compression": 0.259918, "breakout_distance": 0.002882 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.006474, "annualized_volatility": 0.056291, "drawdown_from_52_high": -2e-06, "advance_from_52_low": 0.116401 }, "levels": { "breakout_reference": 41.6, "trend_reference": 40.22444, 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40.14489, "fair_value_history": 35.397035, "mansfield_rs": -2.715116, "stage": 3, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.008019, "architecture_energy": 87.694587, "activity_5": 41.456593, "activity_10": 41.339031, "activity_20": 40.989689, "activity_30": 40.588735 }, { "week": "2026-07-31", "open": 41.47, "high": 41.72, "low": 41.4064, "close": 41.7199, "volume": 89814, "sma_30": 40.22444, "fair_value_history": 35.475128, "mansfield_rs": -3.091096, "stage": 3, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.150134, "architecture_energy": 90.994283, "activity_5": 41.566693, "activity_10": 41.424549, "activity_20": 41.107988, "activity_30": 40.690348 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. 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